1. Donald Trump 2.1 (Bet365, BetMGM)

Despite having being written off so many times before, during and after his term as President, Donald Trump stands clear at the head of the betting for November. One year ago, expert opinion held that Ron DeSantis would usurp him as the GOP nominee. Now, DeSantis is a busted flush and Trump appears to be just a few days away from securing that nomination and expected to win every primary.

That record stands as a stark reminder to underestimate the Trump phenomenon at your peril, but there is a strong counter-argument when it comes to the general election. Besides that initial, extremely narrow victory over Hillary Clinton, (despite losing the popular vote by nearly 3M votes), Trump lost every nationwide election, whether that be to Joe Biden in 2020 or Republicans in the 2018 and 2020 House of Representatives elections. In 2022, Trump-endorsed candidates made in his image flopped badly, amid favorable conditions.

There is also the considerable problem of 91 pending criminal indictments. An entrance poll at the Iowa Caucus – consisting of active ultra-Conservatives in a very favorable state – showed that one third said conviction would disqualify him. He cannot win if those numbers stand up. Likewise, this week’s Reuters/Ipsos poll shows just 20% willingness to vote for Trump if convicted, compared to 58% against.

Nevertheless, polls against Biden generally favour him, given the Republican’s advantage in the electoral college. This is a vastly better position than at this stage in the last two elections and he is entitled to favorite status.

2. Joe Biden (3.0 BetMGM)

Roughly a year ago, my recommended bet was Biden at 4.0. He’s now 3.0 so we’ve beaten the odds and the Democrat nomination looks very likely, but it’s hard to feel confident. Around 60% don’t want him to run, including 40% of those who voted for him in 2020. His approvals are absolutely dire, stuck below 40%.?

Winning in 2020 required an extraordinary coalition of 81M voters, whose principle motive was beating Trump. Repeating that, with the burden of incumbency and at 81 years of age, seems a very tall order. Polls show him shedding voters among key groups – young and minority voters. On the other hand, he’s doing very well with seniors, and those other groups are not generally well disposed to Trump.

In his favor is his record on legislation and jobs, but those approvals don’t indicate recognition. Foreign affairs is looking ever more disastrous for him, with aid to Ukraine stalled and the Israel/Hamas war splitting his coalition. Fairly or not, Republicans are sure to portray him as a weak, senile old man, incapable of leading in a time of crisis. Biden is extremely vulnerable to meme warfare.

Finally, the current strong showing of third party candidates is a massive worry. They were absent in 2020 but undermined Hillary Clinton in 2016. There are strong parallels with that year, when Democrats ignored the signals that their candidate was unpopular.

3. Michelle Obama (13.0 Bet365, BetMGM)

With Trump and Biden likely to be the candidates, most others in betting contention are Democrats thought to have a chance if Biden withdraws later for any reason. New Hampshire will tell us a lot. Biden isn’t on that unsanctioned ballot, but his supporters are urging a write-up campaign. If getting less than 50% or even just above, speculation would mount.

That speculation has recently centered on the former First Lady. Don’t buy it. Obama has consistently said she has no interest in running and there is no reason to disbelieve her. Many of the rumors were spread by Republicans such as Vivek Ramaswamy, in order to undermine Biden. Plus, to get the nomination, she would have to usurp better-qualified Kamala Harris. Such a move might go down very badly with the Democrat base. Terrible value at these odds.

4. Nikki Haley (15.0 BetMGM)

We will know within days whether Haley is a serious candidate or whether her campaign will fold. She absolutely must beat Trump in the New Hampshire Primary. The former South Carolina Governor has emerged as the non-Trump choice, but all the signals are that position is ruinous among a majority of GOP voters. New Hampshire is not representative of the states to come, including her own on February 13th. 

The case for backing her is twofold, but weak. Haley is vastly more electable than Trump and would likely beat Biden by a big margin. If she stays in the race and accumulates delegates, she could end up well positioned if the courts ruin Trump. Even then, though, I’m inclined to think the Republicans would look elsewhere, for somebody more in line with Trump’s thinking. Particularly on foreign policy, such as Ukraine.

5. Gavin Newsom (21.0 BetMGM)

Prior to Obama, bettors latched onto Newsom as the default alternative to Biden. A few weeks ago, he was trading at single-figure election betting odds on Betfair. This despite him fully endorsing Biden.

No doubt, the California Governor has a big future at national level. He’s proven to be a strong TV performer when going into the lion’s den for Democrats – Fox News. Last year he sparred with Sean Hannity and debated Ron DeSantis, to positive reviews among liberal audiences.

Consequently, he is very well placed for 2028 and could make a good surrogate for Biden in November. If Biden were to shock everyone by withdrawing, fall ill or suffer an unforeseen disaster, Newsom would very much enter the conversation. He is an old ally of Harris in California so, theoretically, some kind of deal might be possible.

6. Robert F Kennedy Jr. (29.0 BetMGM)

Son of Bobby Kennedy, RFK first entered the Democrat primary, but after gaining no traction, opted to run as an Independent. He’s polling respectably for a third party but I strongly suspect that is down to the surname and hostility to the two main candidates. His profile rose dramatically as an anti-vaxxer during the Covid pandemic. Not only is that position a loser nationwide, but he’ll lack any sort of party machine and is highly unlikely to win a single state. If staying in though and winning a few percent, he could seriously damage one of Trump or Biden. Probably the latter.

7. Dean Phillips (34.0 Bet365, BetMGM)

This little-known Minnesota Congressman has entered the Democrat primary to try and force Biden out. He is swamping the New Hampshire airwaves and his bid revolves around that performance next week. Current election betting odds represent terrible value. Phillips isn’t a serious candidate, and even if he were to hurt or finish Biden, others would step in and usurp him. Democrats are highly suspicious of his motives and ties to Republican donors.

8. Kamala Harris (41.0 Bet365, BetMGM)

When 2024 betting opened, Harris was favorite, based on the theory that Biden would retire. She hasn’t cut through as VP though and doesn’t poll well.?

Nevertheless, if you think Biden will ultimately be removed from the ballot for whatever reason, her current odds represent an obvious bet. As VP, she would be in pole position to inherit the nomination and always leads hypothetical Democrat polls without Biden.

Plus, assuming the obvious nomination ticket is confirmed in August, her name will be on the ballot. Were Biden to fall ill, or merely a conspiracy theory about his health gains traction, her odds would crash. Veterans of US presidential election betting will confirm such conspiracy theories are a staple. See Clinton’s collapse in the Manhattan heat in 2016 as the prime example, or Trump getting Covid during the 2020 campaign.

9. Ron DeSantis (51.0 BetMGM)

From red-hot favourite, trading below 2/1 after the 2022 mid-terms, DeSantis is proving a spectacular flop. He campaigned in all 99 Iowa counties, earned the endorsement of the state Governor and evangelical leaders, yet came in almost 30% behind Trump. 

The problem? Well, many point to personal weaknesses and awkwardness, but the main issue was DeSantis pursuing the exact same segment of GOP voters that is emotionally committed to Trump. He hasn’t a prayer of winning either New Hampshire or South Carolina, leaving a difficult decision to make in the following weeks. Either get out, or endorse Trump and try again later.

DeSantis is certainly young enough to come again. Or stay in, pick up some delegates here and there and hope Trump is convicted and somehow disqualified later. Polls consistently show he would pick up many more Trump voters than Haley in that scenario. My money, however, is on the Florida Governor cutting his losses.

10. Elizabeth Warren (151.0 BetMGM)

In the event of a Biden withdrawal, Warren is entitled to enter the conversation. At one stage of the 2020 race, she was odds-on favorite to win the Democrat nomination. Her problem then was Bernie Sanders dominating her natural base on the progressive wing of the party. That wouldn’t be the case this time and she remains one of the party’s biggest hitters in the Senate. Nobody would be better positioned to unite progressives and moderates, and Warren would be sure to run a passionate, competent campaign.

Recommended Bet:?Back Joe Biden at 3.0 (BetMGM)

Check out our article on political betting in 2024 for more election betting odds and guidance.

Lead image: Emma Kaden/Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0

My Recommended Political Bet

• Nikki Haley to win New Hampshire Primary @ 8/5

1. Bet On The Presidential Nominee For Each Party

The political betting action begins with the primaries, which determine the presidential nominees for each party. Odds will be available on the primaries for all 50 states and later for how each votes in the presidential election. Some firms will also offer odds on who finishes second, or the winning margin.

Here are my insights for Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.

Iowa

The action begins with the Iowa Republican Caucus.

• Trump is an overwhelming favorite to win Iowa, rated almost certain to win the popular vote at 1-100. BetMGM offer a more competitive market involving the race without him.
• Ron DeSantis is favorite at 1.57…
• …compared to Nikki Haley at 2.5.

If the Iowa results go as expected, it will strengthen Trump’s dominant position at the head of the odds list for Republican Nominee. The highest odds available with Sportsbooks is 1-7 with Bet365, but if you can access an exchange the political betting odds are more generous. For example, 2-11 with Betfair or buying at 82c via PredictIt.

New Hampshire

States do not behave uniformly, and the second leg of the schedule could be the one which sets the race on fire. The New Hampshire Republican Primary is on January 23rd.

New Hampshire has a much higher share of Independent voters than Iowa, and Trump’s polling performance here is notably inferior. While he still leads the polls, the margin has shrunk markedly, with Haley emerging as the main challenger. A recent survey had her within 4%, and Trump on just 37%.

Since then, Chris Christie (polling around 12%) has withdrawn, and almost all of his supporters are expected to transfer to Haley.

BetMGM‘s odds about Haley have collapsed from 5.0 to just 2.6 in recent days, compared to 1.45 for Trump. She remains my preferred bets at these odds. Primary voters famously decide and swing late.

If Trump isn’t getting close to 50%, despite his massive, unique advantage in name recognition and being a former President, I’m skeptical he’ll win. I’d expect anti-Trump voters to unite around the only candidate running him close.

New Hampshire’s primary attracts vast numbers of Independent voters (perhaps more than half the total turnout). These are the types I believe can swing it for Haley.

Whether a Haley win in New Hampshire transforms the wider race is doubtful, because Trump remains will probably dominate the Southern states. Notably, he enjoys a big poll lead in the third race, South Carolina, despite Haley being the former Governor there. Betfair are first up with political betting odds, rating Trump a 1.08 chance to win the popular vote.

South Carolina

In a change from previous cycles, the Democratic Primary officially starts later, in South Carolina, on February 3rd. The party’s decision to usurp New Hampshire did not play well in that state, who chose to keep their primary on the same day as the Republican race. It is unsanctioned by the party and Joe Biden’s name will not be on the ballot. Party activists are organizing a write-in campaign for him.

While Biden is expected to win in the absence of a serious challenger (his opponents are led by little-known Congressman Dean Phillips, Oprah Winfrey’s former spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson and TYT host Cenk Uygur), how this pans out is unclear. Were Biden to fail to win, or reach 50%, via these write-ins, it could spark very serious doubts about his candidacy.

Despite the absence of a strong challenger, Biden is available at bigger odds to win his party’s nomination than Trump. Bet365 offer odds of 1.25.

His closest rivals in this year’s political betting are not currently in the race – Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama. All have strongly endorsed Biden. Bettors supporting them are hoping that, at a later stage, Biden will withdraw due to retirement, ill health or another factor such as impeachment.

2. Bet On The Likelihood Of A Biden v Trump Rematch

A Biden v Trump rematch is very likely. The Betfair odds about this are 1.47.

Yet in both cases, critical known unknowns remain. In Biden’s case, polls show 40% of those who voted for him in 2020 don’t want him to run again, amongst 60% of the population.

Trump’s stranglehold on the nomination could plausibly be threatened by his legal peril. The timeline of his court cases remains unclear but, were he convicted before the nomination is determined, that might alter the calculations of Republican primary voters. Polls indicate a conviction would badly damage his chances at the general election. There is also the ongoing question of whether he could be removed from state ballots via the 14th amendment. Whilst unlikely, in theory the Republican Party could choose to ditch him at their convention in July.

There has never been a campaign anything like it and we take such short political betting odds at our peril. However, assuming we do ultimately see a rematch of 2020, the current odds imply Trump starts as favorite. He’s available at 2.3 with BetMGM, compared to 3.25 about Biden.

3. Bet On The Republican Vice Presidential Nominee

Another competitive market to consider is Republican Vice Presidential Nominee. Whereas Kamala Harris is assumed certain to be Biden’s running mate and trading at the same as his main nomination odds, this is wide-open. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem is the early favorite at 5.0, ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy at 7.5 and Elise Stefanik at 8.0.

4. Bet On Congress

There is also Congress to consider. Control of both the US Senate and House of Representatives will be on the November ballot and betting will become widely available on both, along with all the key states and congressional districts.

5. Bet On Individual Races

In the nearer term, there is a special election in New York’s third district, following the expulsion of Republican George Santos. Betfair have just opened their market and others will follow. This should be a close contest.

6. Bet On When The UK General Election Will Happen

Regarding the UK election, we still don’t know the date or even party leaders for sure. Rishi Sunak is the third Conservative Prime Minister since the last election and, given abysmal approval ratings, his future is far from secure.

A general election in the UK will almost certainly take place in 2024. The latest possible date is January 25th 2025, but that is extremely unlikely for logistical reasons.

The latest Betfair political betting odds rate October-December as 4-9 favorite to be the election date, ahead of April-June at 5.7 and July-September at 7.8.

7. Bet On Who Will Be Conservative Party Leader

Sunak is rated a 1.2 chance to be Conservative leader at the election.

The recent and long-term history of the Conservative Party suggests the latter is a risky short-odds bet. They are famous for removing unpopular leaders and have the mechanism to do so, via a vote of confidence.

Prior to Christmas 2023, with the party bitterly divided over it’s immigration policy, the odds about Sunak exiting early and/or facing a confidence vote spiked. This could well happen again within the next few weeks when Parliament considers the legislation.

8. Bet On The UK’s By-Elections

Before the general election, we will also have at least one and perhaps three by-elections to bet on. These are, like US special elections, local contests in particular districts where the representative has stood down. Again, these have the potential to destabilize Sunak.

The Conservatives have fared terribly in these and the very early betting for Wellingborough has them as big outsiders. However upsets do happen in these affairs – they won a similar race in Uxbridge last year at odds of 8.0.

9. Bet On The UK General Election

Regarding the main event, Labour are strong favorites to regain power.

Labour are rated 1-10 chances at best to win Most Seats at the general election with Bet365 and 1.25 to win an Overall Majority. On current polling, they should achieve both with ease but we are still very early in the process. Recent elections saw dramatic changes during the final months and the Conservatives can hope for a repeat.

10. Bet On How Many Seats Each Party Will Win

At a general election, there are also hundreds of interesting side markets, such as each party’s seat total. For example, Betfair offer “How many seats will the Conservatives lose”. Here the favorite is 201 seats or more at 2.7.

By seats, we mean ‘constituencies’. There are 650 of them, each returning a Member of Parliament (MP), who takes up a seat. In due course, sportsbooks and exchanges will offer odds on which party will win each of those 650 constituencies. Hundreds of markets among thousands in what promises to be an unforgettable year. Truly, a betting bonanza!

FAQs About Political Betting

My Recommended Political Bet

• Nikki Haley to win New Hampshire Primary @ 8/5

For more on the 2024 presidential election, read my article on election betting odds.

• Mark Kelly (D) to win Arizona Senate @ 1.73 – Bet365
• Katie Hobbs (D) to win Arizona Governor @ 2.25 – Bet365
• John Fetterman (D) to win Pennsylvania Senate @ 1.36 – Bet365
• Josh Shapiro (D) to win Pennsylvania Governor @ 1.36 – Bet365
• Republicans to win House, Democrats to win Senate @ 2.0 – William Hill

Outside of a Presidential year, the biggest betting event in US politics is the mid-term elections. The season is already well underway, following a summer of primaries.

My best US bet of the year, pinpointed in January, already landed with ease at odds of around 5/4, as Brian Kemp became the Republican Nominee for Georgia Governor.

What’s In Play?

All 435 seats for the House of Representatives. Gubernatorial races in 36 states. 35 of the 100 seats in the US Senate.

All are scheduled for November 8 and all are betting heats.

The Senate and House races will have big implications for President Biden’s ability to deliver legislation. Presidential candidates for 2024 are sure to emerge, especially from those Governor races.

What Are The Betting Options?

Regarding the big picture, Betfair offer odds on which party wins a majority in either the Senate or the House.

William Hill offer a market on the double. For example, they offer Even money or 2.0 that the Republicans win the House, Democrats the Senate.

Note if the Senate is tied 50-50 as it currently stands, that will count as a Democrat win as Vice President Kamala Harris holds the casting vote.

That even money double reflects the current projection.

The Democrats are now slight favorites for the Senate, following a big turnaround in recent weeks.

The Republicans, however, remain very strong favorites to win the House. Their latest Betfair odds are just 1.17.

Going deeper, we can bet on the outcome of all the states deemed competitive. Or even the exact number of seats each party will win in each chamber.

What’s The Form Guide?

So why is the betting so different for each chamber?

Simply, the electorates and dynamics differ. Every Congressional district is up but only 34 states will vote for the Senate.

Also, House districts are manipulated along partisan lines and are to an ever larger extent, gerrymandered. Whereas a Senate race covers the entire state.

Historically, mid-term elections for the House work against the party of the president. Opponents tend to be better motivated to turnout. 

During President Obama’s two terms, his party were hammered in both sets of mid-terms.

But when President Trump was in the White House, the Democrats enjoyed a ‘Blue Wave’, sweeping the House with 235 seats – an improvement of 41.

Yet on the same day, Trump’s Republicans increased their Senate tally to 53, from 51.

Thus, 2018 illustrates how results between the two chambers do not necessarily correlate.

When the House was last contested, on the same day as the 2020 presidential election and therefore involving a more even turnout, that Democrat advantage fell to just 222-213.

It seems extremely unlikely that they will be able to hold their majority, now they are the incumbents and the Republicans have the extra motivation.

Backlash Against Biden Seems Inevitable

Indeed, the signals have long implied that President Biden will suffer a similar backlash.

It has proved the case in special elections, the disastrous loss of Virginia’s governorship and very nearly a catastrophic loss of New Jersey.

His approval ratings have since sunk to a dismal level, below 40%.

However, momentum may be reversing.

Biden has enjoyed several wins in recent weeks – gas prices falling rapidly, bipartisan bills that few thought possible, better job numbers than expected, the killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri. 

Generic ballot polls are tied, with more led by the Democrats than not in recent weeks, although are still well short of the double-digit leads enjoyed before 2018.

Fivethirtyeight’s model rates them only 20% likely for the House.

Nevertheless, the Senate is a different story, as a 59% forecast from Fivethirtyeight illustrates.

The states in play are relatively favorable to Democrats – an exact reversal of 2018, when Republican Senators defied the Blue Wave at House level.

Furthermore, the Republicans seem intent on a course of electoral suicide. 

Abortion And Jan 6 Investigation Are Hurting Republicans

Whereas there are easy gains to be made on living standards and inflation, self-inflicted cultural wars could prove their undoing. The transformative issue seems to be abortion.

The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade sent Republican activists delirious, but it is consistently unpopular with the majority of voters.

It crystalized a key dividing line in US society and politics, and energized Democrat campaigns.

Likewise, the January 6 Committee Hearings are proving a disaster for Republicans.

Whereas a hardcore of their activists remain fervent Trump supporters and deny the 2020 election result, that position is at direct odds with median voters.

Numerous election-denial extremists and QaNon believers have won primaries, damaging their party’s brand and chances in key races.

US elections are always about Independents, rather than hyper-partisans.

Consider two critical swing states, where both the Senate and Governorship are in play.

Remember, Biden’s election win was only possible by narrowly gaining Pennsylvania and Arizona.

Mid-term, Democrats should be vulnerable here to a competent challenge, but that looks unlikely.

Pennsylvania And Arizona To Stay Blue

In PA, the Republican candidate Doug Mastriano is one of those extreme candidates.

A QaNon conspiracy theorist who attended Trump’s rally at the Capitol on January 6, and denies the validity of Biden’s election win. He trails Josh Shapiro by 8%. 

For the Senate, Trump’s choice ‘Dr’ Mehmet Oz won the nomination.

He’s since been shown to be a resident of a different state (NJ) and a dual national, with Turkey. He trails John Fetterman by 11%.

This would represent a gain for the Democrats, as it is an open seat following the retirement of Republican Pat Toomey.

Bet365 offer odds of 4/11 about each of these race leaders. Short odds for sure, but it is very hard to envisage either Democrat failing.

In Arizona, the party has traveled very far to the Right in recent years, since the late John McCain was untouchable in Senate races.

Their 2022 slate revel in dissing the McCain legacy – which makes zero sense in a state where Independents loved him. 

Instead they have Kari Lake up for Governor, against Katie Hobbs. For the Senate, Blake Masters takes on Democrat incumbent Mark Kelly.

Both of these candidates are again, QaNon believing election-deniers, holding unabashed extreme right views. Their Secretary of State candidate is Mark Finchem – a long-term member of the Oath Keepers.

This is the violent far-right terror group whose leadership has been charged with sedition on January 6.

The betting really doesn’t reflect the nature of the candidates.

Bet365 offer 8/11 about Kelly – who leads by 8.6% on average, and frequently hits 49% or higher – and 5/4 about Hobbs. She too is clearly ahead in the polls and hitting the high-forties.

If Kelly and Fetterman do land these Senate seats for the Democrats, that would alter the overall tally to 51-49 in their favor.

Republicans would need a net gain of two elsewhere. Possible, but not easy or obvious, given the map.

The most vulnerable Democrat defences are in Georgia and Nevada. The latter is a genuine toss-up, between incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto and Adam Laxalt.

Bet365 rate the Democrat outsider but the polls have her 1.5% up on average. 

As for Georgia, I much prefer the incumbent Raphael Warnock at odds of 10/11 against ex-football star Herschel Walker.

His lack of political pedigree is showing already and his campaign is plagued with several scandals, including domestic violence allegations.

Outside those states, changes are unlikely, and if there were an upset, there’s at least an equal chance the Democrats would benefit.

They have a strong favorite in New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan, while the two probable if not certain Republican defences are Wisconsin and Ohio, by Ron Johnson and J.D. Vance respectively. 

Overall, I reckon it will work out as either 51-49 to the Democrats, or 50-50 again, leaving them in control. The difference would hang around Nevada.

My recommendation, therefore, is that even money double with William Hill on a Republican House and Democrat Senate.

Recommended Bets

• Mark Kelly (D) to win Arizona Senate @ 1.73 – Bet365
• Katie Hobbs (D) to win Arizona Governor @ 2.25 – Bet365
• John Fetterman (D) to win Pennsylvania Senate @ 1.36 – Bet365
• Josh Shapiro (D) to win Pennsylvania Governor @ 1.36 – Bet365
• Republicans to win House, Democrats to win Senate @ 2.0 – William Hill

• Back Republicans to win Presidency @ 1.88 (Betfair)
• Back Elizabeth Warren to be the Democrat Nominee @ 32.0 (Betfair)
• Back Amy Klobuchar to be the Democrat Nominee @ 50.0 (Betfair)

The finale is 33 months away but the biggest market in world betting is already heating up.

￡1.6BN was traded on Betfair when Donald Trump and Joe Biden faced off in 2020, smashing the previous all-time record – set by Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016 – by a factor of eight.

A new record may well be set in 2024.

Biden/Trump Would Be First Rematch In 68 Years

Rematches are rare, if not unprecedented.

If materialising, it will be the first since 1956, when Dwight Eisenhower won for a second time against Adlai Stevenson.

Prior to that, it was 1900 when William McKinley repeated his victory over William Jennings Bryan. Interestingly, that pair of elections followed another rematch, when Grover Cleveland reversed his 1888 defeat to Benjamin Harrison.

The logic of a rematch this time is strong. Both Biden and Trump give every indication they intend to run again.

Whilst there is some doubt about Biden given his age and dire ratings, were he to withdraw, he would be the first incumbent to not seek a second term since Lyndon Johnson in 1968.

If you want to back either man, Betfair is the place to get the best odds. Their exchange quotes Biden at 6.6 and Trump at 4.6.

By comparison, buying either on PredictIt would equate to fixed odds of 4.2 and 3.3 respectively.

So, should we be betting on the obvious? Personally, I’m sceptical.

It is simply too early in the cycle to make confident assumptions. Events can and will happen, which are bound to impact the reputations of both men.

Other candidates will raise their profiles. The primaries are two years off, and most contenders won’t start declaring until 2023.

Betting Available On Which Candidates Will Run

On that front, we can bet on whether candidates will run and when they will declare.

Regarding whether Trump will file a Statement of Candidacy before 2023, the PredictIt trading line is around 30c for Yes, 70c for No.

Other bookmakers offer odds that Trump declares this year, or that he is listed on the first ballot of the opening ballot or caucus.

They also offer a wide range of politicians and celebrities for the latter market.

Hillary Clinton is at 4.0 to run – the same odds as actor Dwayne Johnson. “The Rock” has signaled interest in running previously and, the way it is shaping up, 2024 could be perfect for somebody outside politics.

Fox News host Tucker Carlson is a 5.0 chance while Ivanka Trump has also been a popular selection at odds of 8.0.

For a real longshot, Oprah Winfrey is available at 67.0.

Biden Is In Big Trouble

Leaving aside those more outlandish options for a moment, let’s return to the rematch, whether it will happen and who would win.

For my money, Joe Biden has a mountain to climb. His approval ratings are terrible and legislative agenda stalling.

It is very likely he will lose Congress at the mid-terms and then be ground down by Republican investigations.

There will be temptation and pressure to retire. He’ll probably face a primary challenge from within his own party.

The fact Vice President Kamala Harris herself looks an even weaker candidate doesn’t alter his predicament. Others will come forward.

Previously I recommended Pete Buttigieg on these pages and have since cashed the bet out for a profit at 20 points shorter.

Other Democrats to consider are Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar – available at 32.0 and 50.0 for the party nomination on Betfair.

Michelle Obama (22.0) will attract bets, but there’s no indication she’ll run.

Whoever they pick will face a very tough task retaining the coalition of voters that backed Biden against Trump.

My recommendation is to back the Republicans to regain the presidency at 1.88 on Betfair, or at 54 cents on PredictIt.

Republicans In Strong Shape But Don’t Back Trump

I do not, however, recommend backing Trump. His name on the ballot is the Democrats’ best chance.

If he does run, that may well convince Biden to go for the rematch.

Whether this reality dawns on Republicans is highly questionable, but there is still plenty that can go wrong in Trump’s bid for re-election.

First and foremost, there is his massive legal exposure.

New York Attorney General Letitia James said her civil investigation into the Trump Organisation has found massive fraud, is issuing subpoenas and noted Eric Trump had pleaded the 5th Amendment over 500 times.

That investigation dovetails with a longstanding criminal investigation in Manhattan. Grand juries have long been convened and the chances of an indictment remain high.

How To Bet On A Trump Indictment

There is also the ongoing investigation into the Jan 6th insurrection, Trump’s role and other attempts to overturn the election result.

Georgia is investigating his taped and publicised call, telling their Secretary of State to find 11,000 votes. The latest revelations about false electors in seven states, seemingly to defraud the electoral college, could well produce criminal charges.

There’s a link to all the ongoing investigations into Trump within this NYT piece.

Here’s another betting market. Will Trump be indicted in 2022?

PredictIt set an earlier timeline, with an indictment before April 1 trading around 14 cents.

Could Trump Lose His Grip On The GOP?

Such threats would ruin any political candidate in history, but Trump has of course defied conventional wisdom before.

Nevertheless, I regard this a risk that Republicans would be mad to take. 

This time next year, there will be slates of head-to-head polls involving multiple candidates.

I’m confident Trump will fare much worse than other Republicans. Ron DeSantis or Nikki Haley would be looking at an easy win, whilst Trump may even trail Democrats.

I expect there will also be more internal opposition. Some of his loudest cheerleaders, such as Alex Jones, are now sworn enemies.

Trump has picked a fight with a large part of his base by supporting the Covid vaccines.

He even praised China in a recent shocking interview with Conservative activist Candace Owens, who patronised him afterwards as being too old to understand the issues.

Finally, I don’t think Trump-backers have thought through the dynamics of a 2024 campaign.

Whether under indictment or not, he is sure to continue talking openly about rigging the electoral college.

In 2016 and 2020, Trump refused to commit to accepting the result but few commentators, foolishly, took him at his word. In light of Jan 6, they won’t make that mistake again. 

If he’s the candidate, Republicans will spend all of 2024 under pressure to commit to democracy. To avoid chaos, even civil war. Not a winning look, or strategy.

Common sense may prevail, leaving Trump free to spend more time with his lawyers.

Recommended Bets

• Back Republicans to win Presidency @ 1.88 (Betfair)
• Back Elizabeth Warren to be the Democrat Nominee @ 32.0 (Betfair)
• Back Amy Klobuchar to be the Democrat Nominee @ 50.0 (Betfair)

• Buy Brian Kemp for Republican Georgia Primary @ 44c (PredictIt)
• Back 2022 for Boris Johnson Exit @ 2.96 (Betfair)
• Lay (oppose) 2024 or later for Boris Johnson Exit @ 2.2 (Betfair)?
• Back Lula da Silva for Brazilian Presidential Election @ 1.67 (Betfair)

2021 was relatively quiet in terms of political betting but 2022 will be huge. We have constant action throughout the year, across various continents.

Very Worrying Mid-Term Signals For Biden’s Democrats?

The biggest markets involve the usual countries. November sees the US mid-term elections for the House of Representatives, a third of Senate seats plus various gubernatorial races.

As the year progresses, as primaries are resolved, I’ll analyze the most exciting races for states and congressional districts but first, let’s consider the big picture.

Prospects are looking grim for the Democrats, with Joe Biden’s approval ratings down below 45 percent, compared to above 50 percent when winning the presidency.

A shock defeat in Virginia and close shave in New Jersey demonstrated how hard it will be to retain their diverse coalition in government, rather than opposition, and without the toxic name of Donald Trump on the ballot.

Consequently, the Republicans are hot favorites to regain both chambers. Betfair offers 1.44 for them to win the Senate.

PredictIt have an interesting four-way market involving the double. The Republicans to win both House/Senate is trading at 68c.

What Will AOC Do Next??

Beforehand, there are numerous interesting primaries to resolve.

For example the odds on PredictIt imply Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is a mere 43 percent chance to run again in her NY-14 district. Thus raising the question of her next move.

You can buy at 10c that she’ll run in the Democrat Primary for the NY Senate. Other operators offer?that she’ll run for President in 2024 (defined as being on the ballot of the first caucus or primary).

Another famous candidate is involved in the Pennsylvania Senate race, with Mehmet Oz, or “Dr Oz”, rated second favorite for the Republican Primary.

He’s trading at 26c on PredictIt to win the primary. David McCormick is the favorite there, trading around 60c.

Georgia Governor Battle Offers The Best State Markets

The race for Georgia Governor is fascinating on multiple levels.

Stacey Abrams looks certain to be the Democrat candidate but there’s a very competitive primary on the Republican side.

It looks mainly between incumbent Brian Kemp and former Senator David Perdue, with Donald Trump backing the latter while attacking Kemp for failing to back his claims that the presidential election was rigged.

Winning this race could turn Abrams into a 2024 contender – the same firm offer 34.0 that she wins the Democrat nomination, and 100.0 the presidency.

For me, the most appealing bet is a buy of Kemp for the primary at 44c with PredictIt.

He has a solid local base of support and Trump’s ability to determine such party selections is over-rated.

However given Trump’s hostility, a Kemp candidacy could well hurt his side’s turnout and aid Abrams.

Back Boris To Leave Office

Over to the UK, where the future of Prime Minister Boris Johnson is a hot topic.

His approval ratings have sunk to dismal levels and his Conservative Party’s long-term poll lead has been overhauled by Labour. The party suffered a historic, humiliating by-election defeat prior to Christmas.?

The Tories have a long history of dumping unpopular leaders and Johnson should be worried.

Inflation, further fallout from Brexit and imminent tax rises are likely to compound his problems. Rivals are openly positioning.

Betfair offer 2.96 that he’ll leave office during 2022 and 1.83 that he’ll be gone before 2024. Both represent cracking bets in my view.

Regarding the race to succeed him, Rishi Sunak is a 3.8 chance to be Next Conservative Leader, ahead of Liz Truss second in at 5.1.

They look highly likely to be the two main contenders but beware: Early favorites for Tory leadership contests have an abysmal track record.

Two Major European Elections Upcoming

The main event in Europe this year is April’s French Presidential Election.

Here, Emmanuel Macron is best priced at 1.67 on Betfair.

That is probably a sound investment, because there’s a high chance he faces a far-right candidate in the run-off, against whom a majority voters would unite, as in 2017.

However, were his opponent to be the Republican, Valerie Pecresse, I’d consider this to be a 50/50 contest.

Hungary is also making the news, with Tucker Carlson hosting his show from Budapest and now Trump has endorsed Prime Minister Viktor Orban for their general election, due to take place in April or May.?

Orban starts hot favorite but faces an extraordinary coalition of parties, united against what they regard as an authoritarian assault on democracy and civil liberties.

They’re all aligned around a conservative, Peter Marki-Zay, who appears very electable.

Pacquiao Presidential Bid Is Floundering

In Asia, the Philippines Presidential Election is already a big betting event. Not least because Manny Pacquiao is running.

The betting has moved against him though.

Bongbong Marcus is the red-hot favorite here, trading around 83c. The contest is scheduled for May 9.

Finally, the Brazilian General Election looks bound to be a huge global story in October.

Former president Lula da Silva is running again, having beaten corruption charges set up by political opponents. The judge who charged him, Sergio Moro, is third favorite behind Lula and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.?

There’s a big difference in odds between market makers here.

PredictIt have Lula trading at 70c. Yet on Betfair, he can be backed at 1.67 to be President after the election.

Those inflated odds are likely due to the potential for disputes and violence, but the former president is sure to have the backing of critical international allies.

Take the 1.67. I reckon this will trade much shorter later in the year.?

Recommended Bets

• Buy Brian Kemp for Republican Georgia Primary @ 44c (PredictIt)
• Back 2022 for Boris Johnson Exit @ 2.96 (Betfair)
• Lay (oppose) 2024 or later for Boris Johnson Exit @ 2.2 (Betfair)?
• Back Lula da Silva for Brazilian Presidential Election @ 1.67 (Betfair)

Check out my political betting in 2024 article for the latest.

Compared to the record-breaking events of last year, 2021 has been relatively quiet on the US political betting front. Some calm after the storm and a chance for everyone to catch a breath.

With Donald Trump expected to return to the campaign trail any day soon, expect the drama to resume.

‘The Donald’ drove the growth of political betting like no other.

Turnout on Betfair rose nearly fifty-fold between the 2012 and 2020 presidential elections. It is not unreasonable, therefore, to expect the all-time record for any single betting event, ￡2.5BN ($3.5BN), to be smashed.

Both Donald And Ivanka Are Popular For 2024

If you want to bet early, there are plenty of 2024 lines open.

Trump is trading in third place across the industry, with a best price of 9.4 available on Betfair. At 4.0, he’s a firm favorite to be the Republican Nominee.    

Of those two, the nominee bet makes superior sense. Whilst he remains overwhelmingly popular amongst the Republicans who will decide their nominee, Trump remains deeply unpopular with a majority of US voters.

In my view, he’d start a big outsider in a rematch with Biden.

Both bets of course involve a large amount of risk, as he isn’t certain to participate.

Assuming that he intends to run, the more immediate question involves when he will announce.

Here, PredictIt offers a couple of markets on the date – prior to 2022 or 2023. Its current odds currently reflect 12% and 37% chances respectively.

My view here is that he’s in no hurry.

I don’t doubt his appetite, but the decision will probably depend on (a) how well he’s faring in polls and (b) how tied up he is with legal stress.

I don’t expect good news for him on either front.

Will Trump Be Indicted?

After four years trying to get Trump’s tax returns and financial records for an investigation, Manhattan DA Cyrus Vance finally won at the Supreme Court.

A grand jury is now sitting and a decision whether to indict is likely within months. 

Some bookies are offering odds that Trump is indicted before the end of 2021. That also covers any other criminal charges.

For example, Georgia’s AG is investigating his publicized telephone call asking Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger to find 11,000 votes, or various unresolved loose ends, related to the Russia scandal or Mueller Report.

The Georgia case looks particularly threatening.

So if you want to back Trump for long-term targets such as 2024, it probably makes sense to back one of these earlier targets, such as to run.

Or even to avoid indictment, as that would surely have a negative effect on the later odds. If the first hurdle is passed, play up the winnings on the next.

This strategy will pay bigger odds overall.

Congress Run Looks Under-Priced

One idea gaining traction involves first running for Congress.

Find a Republican-friendly district in Florida where the incumbent would happily stand aside – scandal-hit Matt Gaetz’s district, for example – and which would be certain to elect him.

When the idea was mentioned in a radio interview last week, Trump was very enthusiastic.

Being in Congress would provide Trump a new platform. A new megaphone to replace the social media sites, from which he is still banned. Republicans could elect him as Speaker of the House of Representatives, thus elevating him to third in line for the presidency. 

The plan could therefore be for Republicans to win the House at the mid-terms – currently around a 2 in 3 chance according to the betting.

They would then have the numbers to impeach President Biden, conjuring up spurious charges if necessary. If losing the presidential race but retaining the House in 2024, Trump could block the certification.

Bettors aren’t yet convinced.

PredictIt offers a market that Trump will either be on a GOP primary ballot for 2022 or any seat.

‘Yes’ is currently available to buy at just 8 cents – equivalent to odds of 12.5.

Return Of Rallies To Spark More Gambles

I reckon there’s juice in those odds.

Trump thrives off his rallies and so do his supporters. We saw an extraordinary surge of cash for him following the Republican Convention and again once his election rallies ramped up.

Once they restart, (perhaps around July 4), I expect a repeat across these various markets.

This plan to run for Congress will get more of an airing. His supporters will love it and so will his entourage. Trump will love teasing them and the media. A new election campaign would ensure tens of millions of donations.

What’s not to like? 

Republicans would worry that his presence would hurt their mid-term chances and motivate Democrats but hardly anybody in the GOP will stand up to Trump.

I recommend buying these PredictIt shares cheap at 8. If it looked likely, the price would move instantly to 90 plus.

That is the extent of my pro-Trump betting at this stage, though.

I’ve said for five years that the Republicans were on a suicide mission by embracing him and far-right politics.

Nothing has changed.

His brand is toxic to a majority and fixed.

Wider events, from potential indictments to the ongoing prosecutions of his supporters for the January 6 insurrection, will damage him further. 

But so long as Trump wants the political limelight, the Republicans will placate his ambitions.

And so long as these conversations persist, so will the betting opportunities.

Lead image: Gage Skidmore

Sadly, there will be no such record-breaking activity in 2021 because there are no major US elections planned.

There will, nevertheless, be plenty of opportunities in the States and beyond, particularly in Europe.

Trump’s Senate Trial Starts Today

Donald Trump remains centre-stage as his Senate trial begins, following a second impeachment, this time for ‘inciting insurrection’.

At current Betfair odds, you can get a whopping 27-1 about him being convicted. Two-thirds of 100 Senators are required.

Assuming everyone votes, that amounts to at least 17 Republican senators in addition to the 50 Democrats. There is little suggestion that more than a handful from his party will cross Trump.

Both PredictIt and Betfair offer markets on the number of votes for conviction, with 53-56 the confident range. 

Could a miracle happen? The only way I can see it is if a secret ballot is established in the rules. That might change the balance.

On a similar secret ballot last week, the House GOP defied the Trump wing of the party to defend Liz Cheney, who had voted to impeach.

Yang Starts Favourite For NYC Mayor

The biggest US market in 2021 is likely to be the race for New York City Mayor in November.

Here, Andrew Yang is a stronger favourite in the UK, where Betfair rate him a 45% chance, as opposed to 37% on PredictIt.

That looks an overestimate – a classic illustration of name recognition bias that would apply double overseas. Yang has a big online following and ran in the Democrat primary.

The 2024 betting is also now open, with odds widely available for Next President, Democrat and Republican Nominee.

Kamala Harris leads at 4.9, ahead of Joe Biden at 5.9 and Trump at 12.0. These markets are already popular, making it possible to constantly trade in and out of candidates.

However if you’re looking for a sooner payday, Europe is the place.

The UK is a constant source of markets.

In May, there is the race for London Mayor and a slate of local elections. In the former, incumbent Sadiq Khan looks a certainty, as reflected by a 92% rating on Betfair.

The most significant of the latter will concern the Scottish Parliament elections.

What Next For Boris Johnson And Post-Brexit Britain?

More exciting are the open-ended markets regarding the man often labelled, fairly or not, as the British Trump.

Betfair offer odds on which year Boris Johnson will leave office – 2021 is a 20% chance. 2024 is 55%.

Naturally there’s plenty of uncertainty and these odds could transform very quickly in response to events.

Johnson’s popularity has waned during much-criticised management of the pandemic but the impressive rollout of vaccines is turning the narrative back in his favour.

Equally though, the negative effects of Brexit are becoming clearer and nobody is more closely associated with it than the Prime Minister.

Parallel to that conversation is the race to succeed him, as expressed in two markets – Next Conservative Leader and Next Prime Minister.

I’d prefer to play the latter at slightly bigger odds, as I expect Johnson to stand aside before the next election in favour of somebody with less baggage.

The favourite for both is Chancellor Rishi Sunak, at around 30% and 25% respectively. He’s popular with the public but these are very short odds. There are dozens of potential candidates so it makes sense to play big odds.

My last two bets here were Liz Truss at odds of 32-1 and Tobias Ellwood at 449-1.

Germany The Pick Of Three General Elections In Europe   

For general elections, look to mainland Europe.

The Netherlands in March, then Norway and Germany in September. The last is by far the most significant from both a geopolitical and betting perspective.

Long-standing Chancellor Angela Merkel is standing down and the contest to replace her is virtually tied between Markus Soder and Armin Laschet.

Both are rated around 45% likely, despite representing the same coalition. The latter has just become leader of the CDU party while Soder leads their partner CSU. This selection process should be settled during the spring.

Finally, it is definitely worth looking ahead to what will probably be the biggest global market of 2022.

The French Presidential Election takes place next April but there are various candidate contests to resolve first and the outright market is already lively.

Last time Emmanuel Macron beat Marine Le Pen easily in the run-off. They’re rated first and second again, but the race looks much closer. Currently they’re priced at 57% and 18% respectively.

The latter could well rise.

When it all began nearly two years ago, we all knew it would be entertaining. What we didn’t realize was that entertainment would ultimately trump politics, and the daily business of the leader of the free world would become the first global soap opera.

Real Life House of Cards

The plot-lines are better than anything the writers of House of Cards could dream up. A celebrity businessman sweeps to power against all odds, only to find himself under investigation from the FBI amidst allegations of being a ‘Manchurian Candidate’ sponsored by a hostile foreign power, working alongside a fugitive hacker to fix the election.

Add in shadowy intelligence figures talk of blackmail involving recordings of hotel encounters with prostitutes and you’ve got a saga even Frank Underwood wouldn’t be able to manage.

While all this unfolds, Trump’s supporters allege an equally dark conspiracy by corrupt forces in the ‘deep state’ and media.

At any given moment, a cast member of this political thriller is liable to be targeted by some branch of the government. Even Trump’s glamorous family are dragged through the mud. Every little move in this drama makes instant news via Twitter, dividing a global audience along furious, partisan lines.

Naturally, the betting industry are all over it.

Political Betting Livens Up

Whereas political betting used to ?be?a mostly serious, analytical affair involving predicting elections, now it is fused with entertainment.

Irish firm Paddy Power, for example, offer a ‘Golden Shower’ of Trump options – ranging from the next member of the administration to be sacked to whether he will announce that aliens exist.

You can take 66/1 that a US state will declare independence before the end of 2017 or 50/1 that Trump sues Paddy Power.

It is safe to say that either politics or betting have never seen anything like Donald Trump. His presence has generated unprecedented interest, encouraging new participants in both spheres, changing the conversation and reversing analytical trends.

It has now become obligatory to refer to Trump when analyzing any major foreign election – whether it be with regard to the ideology of the candidates or the possibility of another long-odds upset.

How To Understand The Trump Betting Phenomena

Betting markets were once sainted for their record of predicting political outcomes but now gamblers are increasingly happy to scorn so-called expert punditry and back outsiders.

In the recent French election, betting firms took many more individual wagers on right-wing populist Marine Le Pen than any other candidate. Likewise the ‘Dutch Trump’ was heavily backed for months ahead of the Netherlands election.

However in both cases, the bigger money opposed them and market forces were proven right. Trump remains the only winner of a major election this century who wasn’t favorite 100 days out and beyond.

Being on the same side of the political argument as Trump, without his media savvy and celebrity appeal, is not enough to win elections. One reason we pundits got it wrong last year was to overstate the importance of politics compared to the latter.

When And How Will ‘The Donald’ Leave Office?

For all the novelty bets and reference to wider political trends, the main betting angle involves how the story ends. Impeachment, resignation or a second term?

In any conventional cycle, we would simply be betting for or against the latter. However while that is a popular market – Trump is around 9-4 to win the 2020 election, equivalent to a 30% chance – it pales into insignificance compared to the daily drama regarding his survival.

Six times as much has been traded on Betfair’s markets related to his exit date than on the next election.

At the time of writing, punters are roughly evenly split over whether he’ll last a full term. So far as the actual year of departure is concerned, these are the current odds on Betfair:

The Pattern Of Controversy

Fortunes have already been won and lost during the Trump saga, proving just how hard he is to predict. On many occasions throughout that madcap campaign, it seemed he was finished. Each time he defied conventional wisdom to bounce back.

With the benefit of hindsight, the smart way to play it would have involved trading the relentless swings. Backing Trump when all seemed lost, cashing out with a profit once that particular fuss had died down, then waiting for the next drama.

Precisely the same dynamic is applying to his presidency. Never mind lasting a full term, the odds on him leaving office before the end of 2017 have shifted back and forth from an opening 3/1 (25%), out to 8-1 (11%) before collapsing to 9-4 (30%) after firing James Comey, then drifting back to the current 11/2 (15%).

With each breaking scandal and revelation, the market moves one way or another. The route to profit is keeping ahead of the news cycle, in order to predict the direction.

So, What’s Worth Betting On?

My prediction? 2020 seems a very long way off so backing a second term makes no appeal. Trump’s time in office will be relentlessly chaotic, controversial and US politics ever more divided.

The Russia investigations will run and run, probably leading to angles we haven’t even considered yet. Potential smoking guns will regularly dominate headlines and crash betting markets.

I’ve taken 9/2 about 2018 on those grounds. Pressure will rise on Republicans to act ahead of the mid-terms and many may decide achieving their legislative goals can be better pursued by a President Pence.

On current form, those odds look certain to shorten up at some stage. Whether he goes early or not, though, people are bound to eventually tire and move on. Every great series runs it’s course. Even if Trump lasts the full term, it ends there. Doesn’t it?

Advocates will tell you this kind of real-world betting is easier to win at than sports, because the luck element is almost entirely removed. Even the media are getting in on the act, with highbrow newspapers presenting betting odds as an alternative to opinion polls, based on a remarkable recent record.

In this guest piece, political betting guru Paul Krishnamurty takes us through some historical highlights of this fast growing market.

#1 – Barack Obama vindicates gamblers by winning re-election

The reputation of betting markets as a great, perhaps?the best, political predictor has developed this century and arguably no election did more to illustrate the wisdom of crowds than Obama’s re-election in 2012. Despite facing vitriolic Republican opposition from the outset of his tenure, gridlock in Washington and an embarrassing defeat in the 2010 mid-term elections, Obama never ceded favoritism for 2012.

He was constantly rated odds-on, higher than a 50% chance, throughout and that rating rose consistently during election year. While polls showed him neck and neck with Mitt Romney, media pundits sat on the fence, declaring the race ‘too close to call’ even on election night. However peer-to-peer exchange Betfair’s ‘Next President’ market – the biggest and truest guide to market sentiment – delivered a confident verdict, rating him up to around 85%.

#2 – Alec Douglas Home sets a precedent in the first ever political betting market

Political betting, at least as we have come to know it via bookmakers and exchanges, started in the UK more than 50 years ago, soon after the legalisation of licensed betting shops. The first big market was the race to succeed Harold MacMillan as Conservative leader and Prime Minister in 1963, after he resigned mid-term due to ill health.

The hot favourite with UK bookies Ladbrokes and William Hill was Rab Butler. Regarded as one of the finest Tory minds of his generation and a holder of several senior posts under MacMillan, many felt he was a certainty, entitled to a crack at the top job. However his colleagues opted instead for an unelected peer and 16-1 chance, Alec Douglas Home. In doing so, they started a strange trend that persists today. No early betting favourite for the Conservative Party leadership has ever gone on to win. Beware, before backing George Osborne to succeed David Cameron.

#3 – Rank outsider Jeremy Corbyn stuns the political world to?become Labour leader

The two examples above reveal a fundamental difference between types of political market. In the big elections, where the entire electorate decides, gamblers seem to have a remarkable ability to predict the national mood. However in contests decided by party members – early favourites have a poor record and big upsets can occur.

Few came bigger than last summer’s race for the UK Labour Party leadership, when Jeremy Corbyn stunned bookies, the media and his parliamentary colleagues. Initially billed as a three-runner race between well-established candidates that had served in the last Labour government and as senior opposition spokesmen, career rebel Corbyn was dismissed at 100-1 odds by bookies such as Bet365, even 48 hours before the field was whittled down to four. Even after that confirmation, he was a 24-1 chance on Betfair (A happy memory, because I tipped him). The result was a landslide, with the left-winger gaining 60% of first preferences.

#4 – John McCain defies the sceptics to win the Republican Nomination

That party members often wrongfoot the gamblers is an important factor to consider when weighing up the current races for the US Presidential Nominations. The Republicans particularly have form in this regard. Last time, several front–runners in the early betting flopped before Mitt Romney eventually came through, and 2008 was equally dramatic.

Then, it was assumed that the candidates with the most cash on hand and ability to attract big donations would prevail. First that meant Rudy Giuliani, then sentiment switched to billionaire Romney and former actor Fred Thompson. John McCain, who had tried in vain to legislate to limit campaign finance, was dismissed as a 25-1 chance before the primaries. Yet when voting started, the moneyed men never got a look in and McCain won easily on a shoestring, with similarly cash-strapped Mike Huckabee coming in second.

#5 – Rick Santorum comes from nowhere to win Iowa

Likewise, the primaries often produce exciting, unpredictable betting heats. Four years ago, the Iowa Caucus produced a massive upset and the ultimate nail-biter. Two weeks out, eventual winner Rick Santorum was sixth in the betting at around 25-1. As results came in on the night, punters trading live on Betfair were treated to the ultimate in-play political market. Santorum and Romney repeatedly swapped favouritism as results came in district by district. After several hours and recounts, only 0.3% separated them.

Do bear this propensity for dramatic change in mind when betting on this year’s primaries!

#6 – Hillary Clinton upsets Obama in New Hampshire

The previous U.S. election cycle produced perhaps the greatest political betting upset of all-time, proving once again how unpredictable the primaries can be. After Barack Obama sprung to worldwide fame by defying the pundits to win the Iowa Caucus, those same experts widely predicted he would blow Hillary Clinton away one week later in New Hampshire. Having finished a dismal third in Iowa, Clinton was matched at 99-1 on Betfair once voting had begun. The market hadn’t factored in a sympathy vote after her tearful press conference a day earlier though, and her comeback set up a humdinger of a race that would last for months.

#7 – Nicolas Sarkozy justifies long-term favouritism for the French Presidency

Here’s another of those big, national elections where gamblers had an intuitive understanding of where median opinion would end up. There were plenty of reasons to oppose Sarkozy – bitter enemies within his own party, an electorate growing tired of his UMP party, a charismatic, telegenic opposition leader in Segolene Royal and plausible opposition from smaller parties to his?right and centre. Yet the favourite was never headed and his odds steadily shortened throughout 2007. He’s currently second favourite to regain the presidency, behind Alain Juppe, with Ladbrokes, for what will be one of the political betting highlights of 2017.

#8 – Greece shock the EU in bailout?referendum, but retain the Euro nonetheless

Political betting isn’t just about national elections and political parties. Sometimes it can involve the future of a nation. Last summer, as Greece’s debt crisis spiralled out of control, markets were hastily opened on their referendum on whether to accept the bailout deal, and also whether they would retain membership of the Euro. The result of the first – No to the bailout deal – upset the odds, and generated wild market movements about their Euro membership. However as I predicted, a compromise deal was found and the secondary market soon settled upon the status quo.
Watch out for?similar drama in the UK’s forthcoming referendum on EU membership, for example from Star Sports.

#9 – SNP sweep the board in Scotland

These are volatile, unpredictable times in world politics and few countries better illustrate that than Scotland. Traditionally dominated by the Labour Party, a closely fought Independence Referendum in 2014 transformed allegiances, and despite their being on the losing side, energised the Scottish National Party. Previously they had never won more than 11 seats in the UK Parliament and only held 6 going into the 2015 General Election. This time, they won a remarkable 56 out of 59. Some canny punters had taken huge prices in advance on them winning even much lower targets such as 30 or more. However the biggest payouts were made by spread betting firms like Spreadex, who had sold to buyers from 14 upwards in a market that only ever moved one way.

#10 – The 2016 U.S. Election becomes the biggest ever?

After half a century, political betting looks set to peak in 2016. More betting sites are offering more markets than ever before and punters from ever more countries are getting involved. Already tens of millions of dollars have been traded on the U.S. elections, with the unique candidacies of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders capturing public imagination like never before.

It all starts with the Iowa Caucus on February 1st, followed by New Hampshire on the 9th, then the remaining states?as the two nominees are decided. Once we know the candidates, betting will heat up on their choice of vice presidential running mates, and then the General Election itself. Here, betting is about much more than just the winner. Among an enormous array of markets, there will be betting on each state and the distribution of electoral college votes.

One tip must be mentioned at this stage. 100 days out, back the top-rated candidate in Betfair’s Next President market. Since the exchange was created in 2001, the favourite at this 100 day stage has won the main result market in every major U.S. or UK election.

Paul Krishnamurty is a professional gambler, journalist and political analyst. He covers political betting extensively for a range of media outlets, at his site, www.politicalgambler.com and on Twitter @paulmotty