{"id":29533,"date":"2021-10-15T17:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-10-15T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/?p=29533"},"modified":"2021-10-14T12:52:56","modified_gmt":"2021-10-14T17:52:56","slug":"odds-of-winning-wsop","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/odds-of-winning-wsop\/","title":{"rendered":"Your Odds Of Winning WSOP Suck, But Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Think About It"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Winning a WSOP\ntournament is a lifelong dream of many poker players, amateurs, and pros alike.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition to\nthe prestige that comes with it, there is usually a hefty amount of money on\nthe line for the winner. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The problem is, for an event to have a big prize pool<\/a>, it usually needs to have a big field or a massive buy-in. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Since the latter\nis something most players can\u2019t afford, the former remains the only realistic\noption for a majority of poker enthusiasts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This begs the\nnatural question \u2013 what are your odds of actually winning a major WSOP\ntournament like the Main Event? <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Being just one\nof the thousands of players that descend upon Las Vegas every year, what are\nthe odds you’ll be the one to make it all the way to the final table and close\nthe deal?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Are My Odds Of Winning The Main Event?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Damian
2020 Winner Damian Salas. [Image: WSOP.com]<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Every player\nthat takes their seat at one of the countless Main Event tables believes they\ncould be the one this year. With a bit of luck in the right spots and your skills,\nthe dream doesn\u2019t seem that far out of reach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I hate to be the\none to shatter this, but the odds of winning the Main Event are pretty long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s see how\nthis looks in practice. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There were 8,569\nindividual players in the field in the last Main Event. If we accept that poker\nis a skill game but assume that all players are equally skilled, your odds of\nwinning are 1 in 8,569.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Simply put, out\nof 8,569 Main Events played, you\u2019re supposed to win one. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These odds aren\u2019t nearly as bad as those of winning a lottery<\/a> but still aren\u2019t particularly encouraging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re an\namateur or recreational player who doesn\u2019t actually study the game, it gets even\nworse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Almost everyone\nwill agree that a player like Phil Ivey or Daniel Negreanu will have better\nchances of winning the WSOP Main Event than an average player. In fact, all\npros have a slight edge over the competition, which boosts their odds by a few\npoints.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This means the\nodds of winning for the rest of the field are reduced.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So in the above\nexample, if we factor in these deviations, your odds of winning are probably\ncloser to 1 in 10,000 or worse, depending on the individual skill level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To give you a\nbetter idea, for the 2018 Main Event, some major bookmakers put the two\naforementioned players at +5,000 to win. Taking into account their skills,\nexperience, and previous track record, the bookies believe that Negreanu and\nIvey should win one out of 5,000 Main Events they play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, your\nodds of winning directly correlate with the number of players in the field. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, if\nbookmakers are giving these odds for someone like Ivey in a field they expected\nto be somewhere around 7,000 players (the 2018 Main Event ended up having 7,874\nentries), they\u2019d certainly give much lower odds of winning for your average\nJoe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Long Shot Worth\nTaking?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Looking at the\nodds alone, the WSOP Main Event doesn\u2019t seem to be a very appealing prospect.\nIt\u2019s not as difficult as winning the lottery, but for all practical purposes,\nit\u2019s not that far off, either.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other\nhand, the reward is well worth trying to beat the unfavorable odds. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Winning the Main\nEvent comes with a huge prize and many great opportunities down the line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is also worth\nnoting that most people overestimate their poker abilities. So, if you actually\nare a good player, you\u2019ll be a slight favorite over the field as well. This\nparticular event tends to attract numerous amateurs who don\u2019t know much about\nthe game at all. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The bottom line\nis, you’re not likely to win the Main Event in your lifetime, even if you start\nplaying as soon as you turn 21 and play every single one for the next 40 or 50\nyears. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, this\nonly applies if the current trend continues and the fields continue to be\nmassive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back in 2003, when Moneymaker<\/a> took down the ME, the field consisted of just 839 players, so your odds of winning were much better. The top prize was smaller, but winning a couple of million is nothing to sneeze at.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Back in the 70s\nand the 80s, Main Events attracted anywhere from a few dozen to a few hundred\nplayers, so everyone had much bigger chances of becoming the world champion of\npoker. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It was still a\nprestigious title, but the money you\u2019d take home wasn\u2019t anywhere close to\ntoday\u2019s insane amounts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A useful guide if you\u2019re on a budget:<\/em> <\/strong>
5 Cheapest Ways To Get Yourself Into The Main Event<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Best WSOP Odds: Value for Money<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"Hossein
2019 Winner Hossein Ensan [Image: Twitter\/InspiringIranis]<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

While the Main\nEvent is almost everyone’s first thought when discussing the World Series of\nPoker, the fact remains that the Series features dozens of tournaments every\nyear. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Some of them\nactually offer much better odds of winning and solid prizes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Championship\nWSOP events offer good winning odds, provided you are proficient in one of the\nnon-Hold\u2019em formats. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These are\n$10,000 buy-in tournaments featuring Pot Limit Omaha, Omaha 8, Seven Card Stud,\nand other variations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fields in these\ntournaments are often quite small, sometimes featuring fewer than 100 entries,\nand this is especially true for the games that aren\u2019t very popular today, like\nSeven Card Stud 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, if your goal\nis simply winning a bracelet and you have a decent bankroll to work with, these\ntournaments provide the best odds, at least on the surface.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same\ntime, these particular tournaments tend to attract real sharks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

You\u2019ll come\nacross players who are experts in the particular format, so you\u2019d better be\nvery proficient yourself. Otherwise, despite the small field, your odds will\nstill be pretty bad, simply because the skill gap will be so big.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike large\nHold\u2019em events, which are often filled with inexperienced players, Championship\ntournaments have very few soft spots. There won’t be many opportunities to get\nany easy chips, and almost every hand you play will be a challenge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other\nhand, if you\u2019re a good Omaha 8 or Stud 8 player, you might run into some good\nHold\u2019em pros who aren\u2019t that familiar with other variations but are chasing\nbracelets for whatever reason (prop bets, prestige, etc.). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Being solid in\nHold\u2019em doesn\u2019t necessarily translate into being a good Omaha 8 or Stud player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not all about Vegas, either. Find out where else you can play and where you may have better chances of winning in our recent post about other World Series Events<\/a>.<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Odds of Winning Other Massive WSOP Tournaments<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The Main Event\nisn\u2019t the only big-field tournament you\u2019ll find on the WSOP schedule. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

As the series became more popular, it started to attract more and more players every year. Thanks to this, the organizers can add more tournaments<\/a> with small buy-ins and big guarantees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Colossus is\na great example of such an event. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2019, the\ntournament featured a buy-in of just $400, but the winner took home more than\n$450,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re\nwondering what your odds of winning the Colossus are, they\u2019re pretty wild. The\n2019 edition of the tournament saw more than 13,000 entrants, so your winning\nchances certainly aren\u2019t great.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the flip\nside, tournaments with small buy-ins and big guarantees tend to attract all\nplayer profiles, so there were quite a few inexperienced players in there as\nwell. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re a\ndecent player yourself, your odds of winning are better than 1 in 13,000, but\nprobably still not much better than 1 in 10,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Another similar\nexample is the Millionaire Maker event. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This tournament\nhas been on the WSOP schedule for a few years now, featuring the buy-in of just\n$1,500 and promising at least $1 million for the winner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2019, there\nwere 8,809 runners, so your fundamental odds of winning would be lower than\nthose in the Main Event. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, because\nthe field is probably not as tough, your actual odds are probably better. How\nbetter exactly, it\u2019s hard to say, as there are so many different variables to\nconsider.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Are the Odds Of Winning At Least One WSOP\nBracelet?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
\"WSOP
Image: Wikimedia Commons<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Chasing after a\nWSOP bracelet can be a demanding endeavor, but it\u2019s a worthy goal, considering\na bracelet is pretty much the ultimate poker trophy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what are\nyour odds of winning one?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The basic math\nis pretty simple \u2013 the more you play, the better your odds get. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you were to\nplay every WSOP tournament for a decade, you\u2019d have a decent shot at winning at\nleast one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, that\u2019s\nprovided you\u2019re actually a solid player and have a good bankroll to support\nplaying a full schedule every year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, you\ncan always luck out and win a bracelet against the odds \u2013 it happens all the\ntime. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There have even\nbeen examples of people registering for a wrong tournament and playing a game\nthey didn\u2019t know anything about and winning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Summary: Poker Tournaments And Odds \u2013 Do They Really Matter?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If you want to\nplay poker tournaments, you shouldn’t be fixated on the odds of winning. Those\nnumbers can seem pretty scary – and they are. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

You could go for\n1,000 tournaments without winning one if you’re playing in big-field events.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, the\nbetter you get, the better your odds will be, so there are many ways to improve\nyour winning chances in poker tournaments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, just like\nyou could go on a long losing run, it\u2019s entirely possible to defy the odds and\nwin two or three big events in a short time span. This happens all the time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Variance<\/a> plays a huge role in poker, and there is no telling what will happen in any individual tournament. If you go into the day thinking your odds of winning are just 1 in 5,000 or 10,000, you probably won\u2019t play your best game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Instead, try to\nfocus on every single hand and do your best every time you\u2019re faced with a\ndecision. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s the only\ncorrect way to think about poker, be it tournaments, cash games, or whatever\nother format you might prefer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The math says\nyou’re unlikely to win the Main Event, but the math says that for every player,\nnot just you. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Yet, someone wins every year, defying the odds. If you look at things that way, there is absolutely no reason why you couldn’t be the next WSOP champion!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Lead image: Twitter\/CaesarsEnt<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Winning a WSOP tournament is a lifelong dream of many poker players, amateurs, and pros alike. 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