{"id":32373,"date":"2022-08-08T06:22:31","date_gmt":"2022-08-08T11:22:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/?p=32373"},"modified":"2022-08-08T09:26:41","modified_gmt":"2022-08-08T14:26:41","slug":"mid-terms-betting-preview","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/mid-terms-betting-preview\/","title":{"rendered":"Politics Betting: Mid-Term Elections Betting Preview"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Recommended Bets <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Mark Kelly (D) to win Arizona Senate @ 1.73&nbsp;\u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/bet365\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Bet365<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Katie Hobbs (D) to win Arizona Governor @ 2.25&nbsp;\u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/bet365\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Bet365<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>John Fetterman (D) to win Pennsylvania Senate @ 1.36&nbsp;\u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/bet365\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Bet365<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Josh Shapiro (D) to win Pennsylvania Governor @ 1.36&nbsp;\u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/bet365\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Bet365<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Republicans to win House, Democrats to win Senate @ 2.0 \u2013 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/william-hill-casino\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">William Hill<\/a><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Outside of a Presidential year, the biggest betting event in\nUS politics is the mid-term elections. The season is already well underway,\nfollowing a summer of primaries. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>My <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/political-betting-markets-2022\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">best US bet of the year<\/a>, pinpointed in January, already landed with ease at odds of around 5\/4, as Brian Kemp became the Republican Nominee for Georgia Governor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What\u2019s In Play?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>All 435 seats for the House of Representatives.\nGubernatorial races in 36 states. 35 of the 100 seats in the US Senate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All are scheduled for November 8 and all are betting heats.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Senate and House races will have big implications for\nPresident Biden&#8217;s ability to deliver legislation. Presidential candidates for\n2024 are sure to emerge, especially from those Governor races.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What Are The Betting Options?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Regarding the big picture, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/betfair-sports\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Betfair<\/a> offer odds on which party wins a majority in either the Senate or the House. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/william-hill-casino\/\" target=\"_blank\">William Hill<\/a> offer a market on the double. For example, they offer <strong>Even money or 2.0<\/strong> that the Republicans win the House, Democrats the Senate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Note if the Senate is tied 50-50 as it currently stands,\nthat will count as a Democrat win as Vice President Kamala Harris holds the\ncasting vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That even money double reflects the current projection. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Democrats are now slight favorites for the Senate,\nfollowing a big turnaround in recent weeks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Republicans, however, remain very strong favorites to win the House. Their latest <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/betfair-sports\/\" target=\"_blank\">Betfair<\/a> odds are just <strong>1.17<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Going deeper, we can bet on the outcome of all the states\ndeemed competitive. Or even the exact number of seats each party will win in\neach chamber.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>What\u2019s The Form Guide?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>So why is the betting so different for each chamber? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Simply, the electorates and dynamics differ. Every\nCongressional district is up but only 34 states will vote for the Senate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, House districts are manipulated along partisan lines\nand are to an ever larger extent, gerrymandered. Whereas a Senate race covers\nthe entire state.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Historically, mid-term elections for the House work against\nthe party of the president. Opponents tend to be better motivated to\nturnout.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During President Obama&#8217;s two terms, his party were hammered\nin both sets of mid-terms. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But when President Trump was in the White House, the\nDemocrats enjoyed a &#8216;Blue Wave&#8217;, sweeping the House with 235 seats &#8211; an\nimprovement of 41. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yet on the same day, Trump&#8217;s Republicans increased their\nSenate tally to 53, from 51. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Thus, 2018 illustrates how results between the two chambers\ndo not necessarily correlate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When the House was last contested, on the same day as the\n2020 presidential election and therefore involving a more even turnout, that\nDemocrat advantage fell to just 222-213. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It seems extremely unlikely that they will be able to hold\ntheir majority, now they are the incumbents and the Republicans have the extra\nmotivation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Backlash Against Biden Seems Inevitable<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"533\" src=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/1-joe-biden.jpg\" alt=\"Joe Biden\" class=\"wp-image-32383\"\/><figcaption><em>Image: Gage Skidmore\/Flickr<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Indeed, the signals have long implied that President Biden\nwill suffer a similar backlash. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It has proved the case in special elections, the disastrous\nloss of Virginia&#8217;s governorship and very nearly a catastrophic loss of New\nJersey. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His approval ratings have since sunk to a dismal level, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/?p=214553\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">below 40%.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, momentum may be reversing. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Biden has enjoyed several wins in recent weeks &#8211; gas prices\nfalling rapidly, bipartisan bills that few thought possible, better job numbers\nthan expected, the killing of Al-Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Generic ballot polls are tied, with more led by the\nDemocrats than not in recent weeks, although are still well short of the double-digit\nleads enjoyed before 2018. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fivethirtyeight\u2019s model rates them only 20% likely for the\nHouse.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nevertheless, the Senate is a different story, as a 59%\nforecast from Fivethirtyeight illustrates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The states in play are relatively favorable to Democrats &#8211;\nan exact reversal of 2018, when Republican Senators defied the Blue Wave at\nHouse level. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Furthermore, the Republicans seem intent on a course of\nelectoral suicide.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Abortion And Jan 6 Investigation Are Hurting Republicans<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"799\" height=\"527\" src=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/roe_v_wade_protestors.jpg\" alt=\"Protests at the Supreme Court of the United States\" class=\"wp-image-32385\"\/><figcaption><em>Protests at the Supreme Court of the United States. [Image: Ted Eytan\/Flickr]<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Whereas there are easy gains to be made on living standards and inflation, self-inflicted cultural wars could prove their undoing. The transformative issue seems to be <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/las-vegas-is-destination-for-many-out-of-state-patients-seeking-abortions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">abortion<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v Wade sent Republican activists delirious, but it is consistently unpopular with the majority of voters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It crystalized a key dividing line in US society and politics, and energized Democrat campaigns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Likewise, the <a href=\"https:\/\/january6th.house.gov\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">January 6 Committee Hearings<\/a> are proving a disaster for Republicans. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Whereas a hardcore of their activists remain fervent Trump\nsupporters and deny the 2020 election result, that position is at direct odds\nwith median voters. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Numerous election-denial extremists and <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/53498434\" target=\"_blank\">QaNon<\/a> believers have won primaries, damaging their party&#8217;s brand and chances in key races. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>US elections are always about Independents, rather than hyper-partisans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Consider two critical swing states, where both the Senate\nand Governorship are in play. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember, Biden&#8217;s election win was only possible by narrowly\ngaining Pennsylvania and Arizona. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mid-term, Democrats should be vulnerable here to a competent\nchallenge, but that looks unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Pennsylvania And Arizona To Stay Blue<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>In PA, the Republican candidate Doug Mastriano is one of\nthose extreme candidates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A QaNon conspiracy theorist who attended Trump\u2019s rally at the Capitol on January 6, and denies the validity of Biden\u2019s election win. He trails Josh Shapiro by 8%.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the Senate, Trump&#8217;s choice &#8216;Dr&#8217; Mehmet Oz won the nomination. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s since been shown to be a resident of a different state (NJ) and a dual national, with Turkey. He trails John Fetterman by 11%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This would represent a gain for the Democrats, as it is an\nopen seat following the retirement of Republican Pat Toomey.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/bet365\/\" target=\"_blank\">Bet365<\/a> offer odds of <strong>4\/11 <\/strong>about each of these race leaders. Short odds for sure, but it is very hard to envisage either Democrat failing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Arizona, the party has traveled very far to the Right in\nrecent years, since the late John McCain was untouchable in Senate races. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their 2022 slate revel in dissing the McCain legacy &#8211; which\nmakes zero sense in a state where Independents loved him.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Instead they have Kari Lake up for Governor, against Katie\nHobbs. For the Senate, Blake Masters takes on Democrat incumbent Mark Kelly. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both of these candidates are again, QaNon believing election-deniers, holding unabashed extreme right views. Their Secretary of State candidate is Mark Finchem &#8211; a long-term member of the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.vice.com\/en\/article\/5d3pqx\/who-are-the-oath-keepers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\">Oath Keepers<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is the violent far-right terror group whose leadership\nhas been charged with sedition on January 6.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The betting really doesn\u2019t reflect the nature of the\ncandidates. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bet365 offer <strong>8\/11<\/strong> about Kelly &#8211; who leads by 8.6% on\naverage, and frequently hits 49% or higher &#8211; and <strong>5\/4<\/strong> about Hobbs. She\ntoo is clearly ahead in the polls and hitting the high-forties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Kelly and Fetterman do land these Senate seats for the\nDemocrats, that would alter the overall tally to 51-49 in their favor. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Republicans would need a net gain of two elsewhere.\nPossible, but not easy or obvious, given the map.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The most vulnerable Democrat defences are in Georgia and\nNevada. The latter is a genuine toss-up, between incumbent Catherine Cortez\nMasto and Adam Laxalt. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bet365 rate the Democrat outsider but the polls have her\n1.5% up on average.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for Georgia, I much prefer the incumbent Raphael Warnock\nat odds of <strong>10\/11 <\/strong>against ex-football star Herschel Walker. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His lack of political pedigree is showing already and his\ncampaign is plagued with several scandals, including domestic violence\nallegations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Outside those states, changes are unlikely, and if there\nwere an upset, there\u2019s at least an equal chance the Democrats would benefit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They have a strong favorite in New Hampshire, Maggie Hassan,\nwhile the two probable if not certain Republican defences are Wisconsin and\nOhio, by Ron Johnson and J.D. Vance respectively.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Overall, I reckon it will work out as either 51-49 to the\nDemocrats, or 50-50 again, leaving them in control. The difference would hang\naround Nevada. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>My recommendation, therefore, is that even money double with\n<a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/william-hill-casino\/\">William Hill<\/a>\non a Republican House and Democrat Senate.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>Recommended Bets <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<ul><li><strong>Mark Kelly (D) to win Arizona Senate @ 1.73&nbsp;\u2013 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/bet365\/\" target=\"_blank\">Bet365<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Katie Hobbs (D) to win Arizona Governor @ 2.25&nbsp;\u2013 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/bet365\/\" target=\"_blank\">Bet365<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>John Fetterman (D) to win Pennsylvania Senate @ 1.36&nbsp;\u2013 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/bet365\/\" target=\"_blank\">Bet365<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Josh Shapiro (D) to win Pennsylvania Governor @ 1.36&nbsp;\u2013 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/bet365\/\" target=\"_blank\">Bet365<\/a><\/strong><\/li><li><strong>Republicans to win House, Democrats to win Senate @ 2.0 \u2013 <a rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\" (opens in a new tab)\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/reviews\/william-hill-casino\/\" target=\"_blank\">William Hill<\/a><\/strong><\/li><\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Recommended Bets Mark Kelly (D) to win Arizona Senate @ 1.73&nbsp;\u2013 Bet365 Katie Hobbs (D) to win Arizona Governor @&nbsp;&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":20,"featured_media":32376,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3644],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Politics Betting: Mid-Term Elections Betting Preview \u2013 Recommended Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"U.S. Mid-Terms Betting \u2013 Discover our political betting expert\u2019s recommended bets for the U.S. mid-term elections and what&#039;s to play for.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/mid-terms-betting-preview\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta 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