{"id":33601,"date":"2022-10-16T17:30:23","date_gmt":"2022-10-16T22:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/?p=33601"},"modified":"2022-10-14T10:16:27","modified_gmt":"2022-10-14T15:16:27","slug":"chaos-theory-advantage-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/chaos-theory-advantage-play\/","title":{"rendered":"Can You Use Chaos Theory To Beat The House?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
Savvy gamblers are always looking for a way\nto gain an edge over the house, and that includes looking to the world of science\nand math for help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here we\u2019ll look at chaos theory at its most basic level and whether you can you use it to gain an advantage in blackjack<\/a> and roulette<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Chaos theory is a complicated mathematical theory<\/a> that studies the unpredictable and random nature of complex systems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n A complex system could be something like the\nweather, or the behavior of water boiling on a stove.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It theorizes that a tiny difference in\nstarting conditions will result in a completely different outcome<\/strong>, which is\nwhat makes the systems so complex to study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You might be more familiar with the butterfly effect<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The term was coined by MIT meteorologist and one of the pioneers of chaos theory, Edward Lorenz, when he was developing a weather-prediction model in the 1960s. <\/p>\n\n\n\n He theorized that something as small as a\nbuttery flapping its wings in Asia could be capable of eventually causing a\nhurricane in the Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As is often the case in such discussions of\nscientific discovery, many nuances were lost in its simplification for\nwidespread audiences. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And is also the case in many scientific discoveries,\nthere were punters hoping to cash in. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Edward Lorenz\u2019s nuanced take on the\npredictability of weather quickly began discussions on whether roulette spins\ncould be foretold, or whether blackjack shoes were \u2018complex systems.\u2019 <\/p>\n\n\n\n And wherever there are gamblers looking to\ncash in, there is always someone selling a how-to guide that will make it quick\nand easy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And in all fairness, both blackjack and roulette\noutcomes certainly do have a sensitive dependence to initial conditions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n So, let\u2019s take a look to see if you can use\nchaos theory next time you\u2019re at the casino. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The beauty of blackjack has always been\nthat it\u2019s not a random game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The probability of the next card is\ndetermined by the cards that have been dealt preceding it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n And due to the rules of the game, a large\nnumber of high-value cards left to be dealt changes the odds, sometimes to the\npoint where you have the advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Chaos theory is used to find order in\nseemingly random data, so there is some sense that maybe it could be applied in\nsome way here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But that is just smoke and mirrors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n We know the difference that each card\u2019s\nremoval from the game will make, there is no large change from the subtraction\nof one Ace from a 6-deck shoe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Six decks of randomly shuffled cards\npresent many opportunities for those that watch what cards have been played and\nknow the value of cards left to be played. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But it does not rise to the level of a\ncomplex system<\/strong>. No small change to our starting conditions can lead to big\nchanges by the end of the shoe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Modeling of millions of shoes of blackjack\ndoes not reveal any tipping point where things change suddenly and\ndramatically. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Rather it shows a simple mathematical\nprogression of highs and lows. Almost like a song if you will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The purpose of a roulette wheel from the\nhouse side of things is to put together an instrument that creates an\nindependent trial. <\/p>\n\n\n\n One that randomly selects one of 38\ndifferent numbers from double zero to 36. <\/p>\n\n\n\n But of course, an ivory ball, a wooden\nwheel, and a moving metal wheel head are perhaps not the best practical choices\nfor such a task. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Trust an engineer to quickly figure out a\nsystem\u2019s flaws. That\u2019s exactly what Joseph Jagger did way back in 1880 when he famously\nbroke the bank in Monte Carlo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Spotting just one wheel out of dozens that seemed\nto have flaws, he won about $7 million in today\u2019s money in an up-and-down week\nthat saw the casino realize the problem and attempt a bait and switch with a\ndifferent wheel head. <\/p>\n\n\n\n I personally saw a rather eccentric\nEnglishman, who went by the pseudonym \u201cHarry Gatto,\u201d beat two separate wheel\nheads for more than $300K back in the early 90s after tracking them for months.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n There is little doubt that roulette wheels\nhave been susceptible to attack in the past due to poor maintenance and flawed\ndesign. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The question is whether they still are, and\nwhether chaos theory can help in that pursuit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Here again, on the surface, it appears that\nsmall deviations in starting conditions can cause large changes in results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n A slightly bent fret on a wheel head, a\nworn ball, a groove in the ball track, a slight tilt to the spindle – any of\nthese can cause a number or segment of numbers to hit more often than they\nshould.<\/p>\n\n\n\n But most of these issues are best described\nby everyday physics, and while the turn of the roulette wheel and the\nsubsequent landing of the ball is affected by many more things than you might\nat first think, it\u2019s simply untrue that small differences in things as obscure\nas humidity or the temperature make a large difference<\/strong> in the speed or,\nmore importantly, the number the ball ultimately lands in. <\/p>\n\n\n\n As far back as the late 70s physics\nstudents from UCSC were tackling roulette with computers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n It turns out that by accounting for the\nspeed of the ball and the speed of the wheel, and then using other calculations\nfor the scatter of the ball once it descends onto the wheel head, that they\ncould bet sections of the wheel that would net them north of a 40% advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\nWhat Is Chaos Theory?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Can You Use Chaos Theory To Beat Blackjack?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Can You Use Chaos Theory To Beat Roulette?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Casinos Make It Hard To Cheat<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n