{"id":33601,"date":"2022-10-16T17:30:23","date_gmt":"2022-10-16T22:30:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/?p=33601"},"modified":"2022-10-14T10:16:27","modified_gmt":"2022-10-14T15:16:27","slug":"chaos-theory-advantage-play","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/chaos-theory-advantage-play\/","title":{"rendered":"Can You Use Chaos Theory To Beat The House?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Savvy gamblers are always looking for a way\nto gain an edge over the house, and that includes looking to the world of science\nand math for help.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here we\u2019ll look at chaos theory at its most basic level and whether you can you use it to gain an advantage in blackjack<\/a> and roulette<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What Is Chaos Theory?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Chaos theory is a complicated mathematical theory<\/a> that studies the unpredictable and random nature of complex systems. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A complex system could be something like the\nweather, or the behavior of water boiling on a stove.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It theorizes that a tiny difference in\nstarting conditions will result in a completely different outcome<\/strong>, which is\nwhat makes the systems so complex to study.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You might be more familiar with the butterfly effect<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The term was coined by MIT meteorologist and one of the pioneers of chaos theory, Edward Lorenz, when he was developing a weather-prediction model in the 1960s. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

He theorized that something as small as a\nbuttery flapping its wings in Asia could be capable of eventually causing a\nhurricane in the Atlantic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As is often the case in such discussions of\nscientific discovery, many nuances were lost in its simplification for\nwidespread audiences. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And is also the case in many scientific discoveries,\nthere were punters hoping to cash in. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Edward Lorenz\u2019s nuanced take on the\npredictability of weather quickly began discussions on whether roulette spins\ncould be foretold, or whether blackjack shoes were \u2018complex systems.\u2019 <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And wherever there are gamblers looking to\ncash in, there is always someone selling a how-to guide that will make it quick\nand easy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And in all fairness, both blackjack and roulette\noutcomes certainly do have a sensitive dependence to initial conditions. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

So, let\u2019s take a look to see if you can use\nchaos theory next time you\u2019re at the casino. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can You Use Chaos Theory To Beat Blackjack?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The beauty of blackjack has always been\nthat it\u2019s not a random game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The probability of the next card is\ndetermined by the cards that have been dealt preceding it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And due to the rules of the game, a large\nnumber of high-value cards left to be dealt changes the odds, sometimes to the\npoint where you have the advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Chaos theory is used to find order in\nseemingly random data, so there is some sense that maybe it could be applied in\nsome way here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But that is just smoke and mirrors. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We know the difference that each card\u2019s\nremoval from the game will make, there is no large change from the subtraction\nof one Ace from a 6-deck shoe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Six decks of randomly shuffled cards\npresent many opportunities for those that watch what cards have been played and\nknow the value of cards left to be played. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But it does not rise to the level of a\ncomplex system<\/strong>. No small change to our starting conditions can lead to big\nchanges by the end of the shoe. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Modeling of millions of shoes of blackjack\ndoes not reveal any tipping point where things change suddenly and\ndramatically. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rather it shows a simple mathematical\nprogression of highs and lows. Almost like a song if you will.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can You Use Chaos Theory To Beat Roulette?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The purpose of a roulette wheel from the\nhouse side of things is to put together an instrument that creates an\nindependent trial. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

One that randomly selects one of 38\ndifferent numbers from double zero to 36. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But of course, an ivory ball, a wooden\nwheel, and a moving metal wheel head are perhaps not the best practical choices\nfor such a task. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trust an engineer to quickly figure out a\nsystem\u2019s flaws. That\u2019s exactly what Joseph Jagger did way back in 1880 when he famously\nbroke the bank in Monte Carlo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spotting just one wheel out of dozens that seemed\nto have flaws, he won about $7 million in today\u2019s money in an up-and-down week\nthat saw the casino realize the problem and attempt a bait and switch with a\ndifferent wheel head. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

I personally saw a rather eccentric\nEnglishman, who went by the pseudonym \u201cHarry Gatto,\u201d beat two separate wheel\nheads for more than $300K back in the early 90s after tracking them for months.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is little doubt that roulette wheels\nhave been susceptible to attack in the past due to poor maintenance and flawed\ndesign. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The question is whether they still are, and\nwhether chaos theory can help in that pursuit. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here again, on the surface, it appears that\nsmall deviations in starting conditions can cause large changes in results. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

A slightly bent fret on a wheel head, a\nworn ball, a groove in the ball track, a slight tilt to the spindle – any of\nthese can cause a number or segment of numbers to hit more often than they\nshould.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But most of these issues are best described\nby everyday physics, and while the turn of the roulette wheel and the\nsubsequent landing of the ball is affected by many more things than you might\nat first think, it\u2019s simply untrue that small differences in things as obscure\nas humidity or the temperature make a large difference<\/strong> in the speed or,\nmore importantly, the number the ball ultimately lands in. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Casinos Make It Hard To Cheat<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

As far back as the late 70s physics\nstudents from UCSC were tackling roulette with computers. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It turns out that by accounting for the\nspeed of the ball and the speed of the wheel, and then using other calculations\nfor the scatter of the ball once it descends onto the wheel head, that they\ncould bet sections of the wheel that would net them north of a 40% advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The issue here, much as counting cards<\/a>, is that it is almost instantly observable by a trained professional<\/strong>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

You must first get the info on where the\nball is, where the wheel head is, and the speed of both, and then<\/em> still\nhave time to get your bets down where a hidden computer tells you to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While it can now be accomplished by apps on\nyour phone, you can imagine the frantic betting back in the 80s. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But again, the late betting of coinciding\nnumbers on the wheel head is a dead giveaway. And this is one of many reasons\nwhy phones are almost never allowed to be out anywhere near a roulette game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In rare cases, casinos may wave off new\nbets after just one or two revolutions of the ball to prevent this type of\nadvantage play. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other approaches from the late 80s and 90s\nthat looked for tilted wheel heads or other physical issues with the wheels\nhave also largely been fixed. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s not uncommon for a larger casino in\nthe states to do wheel maintenance once a week, or even more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This will include looking for any issues with\nfrets and canoes or ensuring that nothing sticky has gotten on a number to\nprevent the ball from bouncing out easily. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It will also employ a level to make sure\nthe wheel isn\u2019t tilted in some way, which may have been how my Mr. Gatto managed\nto beat those roulette games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

And while collecting reams of data on\nroulette wheel decisions is what is generally prescribed for locating a\nbeatable game, please note that most casinos already pull that data directly\nfrom their electronic roulette scoreboards <\/strong>where it can then be analyzed by\npowerful software looking for anomalies. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

My advice on anyone wanting to sell you a chaos\ntheory-derived roulette system is, as always, \u201cRun, don\u2019t walk.\u201d  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While roulette remains susceptible to\nseveral different advantage plays, most of these are easily defeated by\nproperly trained staff and have nothing to do with chaos theory<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And perhaps the best protection of all is\nsimply keeping two balls on the table of differing weights and sizes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even the best physics models or an\nabsolutely stunning supercomputer using some version of chaos modeling won\u2019t\nget far if they are unsure of the starting conditions that they need to make an\naccurate prediction. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For something similar, check out:
Can Quantum Entanglement Really Help You Win At Blackjack?<\/a><\/strong><\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Savvy gamblers are always looking for a way to gain an edge over the house, and that includes looking to …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":62,"featured_media":33604,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,17,3267],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nChaos Theory & Gambling - Can You Use It To Beat The House?<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Chaos Theory & Gambling - Learn what chaos theory is and whether you can use it to gain an advantage in blackjack and roulette.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/chaos-theory-advantage-play\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Can You Use Chaos Theory To Beat The House?\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Learn what chaos theory is and whether you can use it to gain an advantage in blackjack and roulette.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/chaos-theory-advantage-play\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Casino.org Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Casino.OrgNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2022-10-16T22:30:23+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2022-10-14T15:16:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/chaos_theory_gambling.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Kevin Lentz\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Can You Use Chaos Theory To Beat The House?\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"Learn what chaos theory is and whether you can use it to gain an advantage in blackjack and roulette.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Kevin Lentz\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"7 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/chaos-theory-advantage-play\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/chaos-theory-advantage-play\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Kevin Lentz\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/#\/schema\/person\/bb425787a1fc54ab3dfb4e788c6f8821\"},\"headline\":\"Can You Use Chaos Theory To Beat The House?\",\"datePublished\":\"2022-10-16T22:30:23+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2022-10-14T15:16:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/chaos-theory-advantage-play\/\"},\"wordCount\":1372,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/chaos-theory-advantage-play\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/chaos_theory_gambling.png\",\"articleSection\":[\"Guides\",\"Strategy\",\"Tips & Tricks\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/chaos-theory-advantage-play\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/chaos-theory-advantage-play\/\",\"name\":\"Chaos Theory & Gambling - 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