{"id":33796,"date":"2022-11-12T17:30:30","date_gmt":"2022-11-12T23:30:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/?p=33796"},"modified":"2022-11-11T11:29:50","modified_gmt":"2022-11-11T17:29:50","slug":"martingale-system-flawed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/martingale-system-flawed\/","title":{"rendered":"R. Paul Wilson On: Why The Martingale System Doesn\u2019t Work"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Gamblers love the idea of luck or fate and are\noften suckered by the notion of a system that can defeat the casino and beat\nthe house at their own game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sadly, these tend to either require a lot of\nwork or are nothing more than fantasies based on bad math and wishful thinking.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How The Martingale Works<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

If you\u2019re reading this, I\u2019m sure you\u2019re already\nfamiliar with the system we\u2019re about to discuss and chances are you have an\ninner gambler who is convinced the system has merit for reasons I\u2019m about to\nget into but first, let\u2019s define the difference – for this article – between a\ngambler and a player.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A gambler relies on luck while a player relies\non knowledge of the game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Gamblers love systems like the Martingale<\/a> because, frankly, they can be fun. Players, on the other hand, recognize the obvious (to them) flaws in this kind of strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So here are the basics to the Martingale System:\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You choose a 50\/50 proposition such as red or black on a roulette<\/a> table and place your initial stake on red, and if you win, you collect your winnings and repeat the bet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s the easy part.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you lose, you simply double your bet for the\nnext spin so that if you win, you recoup your losses and have a profit equal\nto your initial stake<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let\u2019s say that again because we\u2019ll be coming\nback to it in a moment: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you lose your initial stake, you double that\nbet and if you win, you get back everything that you lost PLUS a profit equal\nto your initial bet<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you keep losing, you keep doubling and\ndoubling and doubling your bets until eventually red comes up and you get back\nall of the money you lost, plus a profit equal to your initial bet<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A \u201cprofit\u201d equal to your \u201cinitial bet.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s what you win no matter how many times you\ndouble your bet to chase your losses, all you will ever win is equal to that\nfirst (lowest) bet<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An Example To\nDemonstrate <\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s play this out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You bet $1 on red and you lose, so you bet $2 on\nthe next spin and lose again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, thanks to the fickle hand of fate, you\nare going to lose the next 21 spins BUT you are going to win the 22nd spin, so\nI guarantee that if you keep playing you will eventually see the ball land in\nred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So let\u2019s keep doubling until we hit that red.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our initial stake is $1, then we double to $2,\nthen 4$ – $8 – $16 – $32 – $64 – $128 – $256 – $512 – $1,024 – $2,048 – $4,096\n– $8,192 – $16,384 – $32,768 – $65,536 – $131,072 – $262,144 – $524,288 –\n$1,048,576\u2026<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So we just bet $1,048,576 and all we need to bet\non that guaranteed 22nd<\/sup> spin is a little less than $2.1 million\ndollars and we win back everything we just lost PLUS we will be ONE DOLLAR in\nprofit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One dollar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One buck.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s what we just won for risking around $4.2\nmillion dollars of our own money (roughly the sum of everything we lost plus\nour last bet, which we won).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Martingale
No matter how many times you double your bet to chase your losses, all you will ever win is equal to that first (lowest) bet!<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Another Gambler\u2019s Fallacy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Gamblers will no doubt state the chances of 21\nspins without a single red appearing is extremely unlikely and I agree that it\ndoesn\u2019t happen often but it really does happen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And when it does it might keep happening until\nyou either run out of money or you run into the table limit which forbids you\nfrom doubling any more bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In fact, players are probably already screaming\nthis at their screen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

No one has a limitless bankroll and if they did,\nno casino will let them play without a table limit to protect the house but\neven in the above scenario, the house only loses one dollar <\/em>whenever\nyour lucky red number finally comes up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So why is it such a compelling idea for a system\nand why do people still play it?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I guess it\u2019s fun, especially if the spread of\nreds and blacks is relatively \u201cnormal\u201d since most players will win in a couple\nof spins and return to their initial bet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In these scenarios, the Martingale brings\nseemingly guaranteed rewards until a string of losing results ultimately breaks\nthe player\u2019s bankroll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that will always happen eventually because –\nand I know this is going to be hard for many gamblers to believe – roulette\nwheels do not have a memory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Every spin is independent of every other spin\nand the chances of a red or a black number coming up remains the same for each\nindividual spin no matter how many reds or blacks preceded that spin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The gambler can\u2019t accept this and simply points\nto the long list of blacks and zeros (more about those in a moment) and\nbelieves that a red number must eventually appear and the more non-red numbers\nthat preceded a spin must greatly improve the chances that the next number will\nbe red.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Except – maddeningly – this is false, but the\ngambler\u2019s brain often refuses to accept that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A Stupid Way To Win<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I once sat in a casino in Europe where we could\nmonitor all the LED number displays waiting for a run of six red or black\nnumbers before signaling players to hit the table and bet on the opposite color.\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Amazingly, this tactic paid a healthy profit\nuntil we hit a period of persistent losses that would have deleted our profits\nhad we not pulled back our bets in time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For months afterward I would watch those same\nLED displays from the poker room and record how many times a run of six became\na run of seven and the answer was about half the time, immediately recognizing\nhow stupid that entire strategy would have been in the long run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Of course, that red\/black bet was never a 50\/50\nproposition since there is a green zero on the wheel that keeps the odds\nagainst the player; and in the US there are two zeros, making their wheels even\nless attractive over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sure, we won a little, but the method was flawed\nand had we been overly distracted by our initial success we might have followed\nsubsequent losses into an inevitable black hole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We made a lot more (though small beans compared\nto well-funded teams) by identifying biased wheels, which I\u2019ll discuss another\ntime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Variations<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

There are of course variations on the Martingale\nstrategy that seek to improve chances and returns while supposedly addressing\nthe weaknesses just described, but all of these are failing to defeat the\ncasino\u2019s mathematical advantage<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One such variation is the \u201cSplit Martingale\u201d\nalso known as \u201cLabouchere,\u201d or the now infamous \u201cReverse Labouchere.\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n

If you want to know more about the Reverse Labouchere system, it\u2019s accompanied by a fantastic story of a little guy breaking the bank in Monte Carlo<\/a> that I covered in one of my previous articles.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gamblers love the idea of luck or fate and are often suckered by the notion of a system that can …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":47,"featured_media":33797,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3644,17],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nWhy The Martingale System Doesn\u2019t Work \u2013 Roulette System Explained<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Martingale System Roulette \u2013 Learn about the Martingale and other related roulette systems \u2013 and why they don\u2019t actually work.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/martingale-system-flawed\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"R. 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