- \n
- Nikki Haley to win New Hampshire Primary @ 8\/5<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n1. Bet On The Presidential Nominee For Each Party<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Donald](\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Donald_Trump-1.jpg\")
Image of Donald Trump: Gage Skidmore<\/em>\/Wikipedia Commons<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n The political betting action begins with the primaries, which determine the presidential nominees for each party. Odds will be available on the primaries for all 50 states and later for how each votes in the presidential election<\/a>. Some firms will also offer odds on who finishes second, or the winning margin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Here are my insights for Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Iowa<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The action begins with the Iowa Republican Caucus.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- \n
- Trump is an overwhelming favorite to win Iowa, rated almost certain to win the popular vote at 1-100. <\/strong>BetMGM<\/a> offer a more competitive market involving the race without him.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Ron DeSantis is favorite at 1.57…<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- …compared to Nikki Haley at 2.5.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
If the Iowa results go as expected, it will strengthen Trump\u2019s dominant position at the head of the odds list for Republican Nominee. The highest odds available with Sportsbooks is 1-7 with Bet365<\/a><\/strong>, but if you can access an exchange the political betting odds are more generous. For example, 2-11 with Betfair or buying at 82c via PredictIt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
New Hampshire<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
States do not behave uniformly, and the second leg of the schedule could be the one which sets the race on fire. The New Hampshire Republican Primary is on January 23rd.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
New Hampshire has a much higher share of Independent voters than Iowa, and Trump\u2019s polling performance here is notably inferior. While he still leads the polls, the margin has shrunk markedly, with Haley emerging as the main challenger. A recent survey had her within 4%, and Trump on just 37%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Since then, Chris Christie (polling around 12%) has withdrawn, and almost all of his supporters are expected to transfer to Haley.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
BetMGM<\/a>‘s odds about Haley have collapsed from 5.0 to just 2.6 in recent days, compared to 1.45 for Trump. She remains my preferred bets at these odds. <\/strong>Primary voters famously decide and swing late.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"Governor](\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Nikki-Haley.jpg\")
Image of Nikki Haley: George Skidmore\/Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0 <\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n If Trump isn\u2019t getting close to 50%, despite his massive, unique advantage in name recognition and being a former President, I\u2019m skeptical he\u2019ll win. I\u2019d expect anti-Trump voters to unite around the only candidate running him close. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
New Hampshire\u2019s primary attracts vast numbers of Independent voters (perhaps more than half the total turnout). These are the types I believe can swing it for Haley.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Whether a Haley win in New Hampshire transforms the wider race is doubtful, because Trump remains will probably dominate the Southern states. Notably, he enjoys a big poll lead in the third race, South Carolina, despite Haley being the former Governor there. Betfair are first up with political betting odds, rating Trump a 1.08 chance to win the popular vote.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
South Carolina<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
In a change from previous cycles, the Democratic Primary officially starts later, in South Carolina, on February 3rd. The party\u2019s decision to usurp New Hampshire did not play well in that state, who chose to keep their primary on the same day as the Republican race. It is unsanctioned by the party and Joe Biden\u2019s name will not be on the ballot. Party activists are organizing a write-in campaign for him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"President](\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Biden.jpg\")
Image of President Biden: U.S. Secretary of Defense\/Flickr, CC BY 2.0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n While Biden is expected to win in the absence of a serious challenger (his opponents are led by little-known Congressman Dean Phillips, Oprah Winfrey\u2019s former spiritual advisor Marianne Williamson and TYT host Cenk Uygur), how this pans out is unclear. Were Biden to fail to win, or reach 50%, via these write-ins, it could spark very serious doubts about his candidacy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite the absence of a strong challenger, Biden is available at bigger odds to win his party\u2019s nomination than Trump. Bet365<\/a><\/strong> offer odds of 1.25.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
His closest rivals in this year’s political betting are not currently in the race – Gavin Newsom, Kamala Harris and Michelle Obama. All have strongly endorsed Biden. Bettors supporting them are hoping that, at a later stage, Biden will withdraw due to retirement, ill health or another factor such as impeachment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
2. Bet On The Likelihood Of A Biden v Trump Rematch<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Trump](\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/trump-v-biden.jpg\")
Image of Trump and Biden: Emma Kaden\/Flickr, CC BY-SA 2.0<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n A Biden v Trump rematch is very likely. The Betfair odds about this are 1.47.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
Yet in both cases, critical known unknowns remain. In Biden\u2019s case, polls show 40% of those who voted for him in 2020 don\u2019t want him to run again, amongst 60% of the population.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Trump\u2019s stranglehold on the nomination could plausibly be threatened by his legal peril. The timeline of his court cases remains unclear but, were he convicted before the nomination is determined, that might alter the calculations of Republican primary voters. Polls indicate a conviction would badly damage his chances at the general election. There is also the ongoing question of whether he could be removed from state ballots via the 14th amendment. Whilst unlikely, in theory the Republican Party could choose to ditch him at their convention in July.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There has never been a campaign anything like it and we take such short political betting odds at our peril. However, assuming we do ultimately see a rematch of 2020, the current odds imply Trump starts as favorite. He\u2019s available at 2.3 with BetMGM<\/a><\/strong>, compared to 3.25 about Biden.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
3. Bet On The Republican Vice Presidential Nominee<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
![\"Ben](\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/Ben_Carson.jpg\")
Image of Ben Carson: Gage Skidmore\/Wikipedia Commons<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Another competitive market to consider is Republican Vice Presidential Nominee. Whereas Kamala Harris is assumed certain to be Biden\u2019s running mate and trading at the same as his main nomination odds, this is wide-open. South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem is the early favorite at 5.0, ahead of Vivek Ramaswamy at 7.5 and Elise Stefanik at 8.0.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n
4. Bet On Congress <\/h2>\n\n\n\n
There is also Congress to consider. Control of both the US Senate and House of Representatives will be on the November ballot and betting will become widely available on both, along with all the key states and congressional districts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
5. Bet On Individual Races<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
In the nearer term, there is a special election in New York\u2019s third district, following the expulsion of Republican George Santos. Betfair have just opened their market and others will follow. This should be a close contest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
6. Bet On When The UK General Election Will Happen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
Regarding the UK election, we still don\u2019t know the date or even party leaders for sure. Rishi Sunak is the third Conservative Prime Minister since the last election and, given abysmal approval ratings, his future is far from secure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
- Ron DeSantis is favorite at 1.57…<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Trump is an overwhelming favorite to win Iowa, rated almost certain to win the popular vote at 1-100. <\/strong>BetMGM<\/a> offer a more competitive market involving the race without him.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
![\"Prime](\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/rishi-sunak.jpg\")