{"id":116513,"date":"2019-10-06T23:52:50","date_gmt":"2019-10-07T06:52:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/?p=116513"},"modified":"2019-10-08T12:40:43","modified_gmt":"2019-10-08T19:40:43","slug":"poker-experts-suspicious-over-mike-postles-high-win-rate-as-he-denies-allegations","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/poker-experts-suspicious-over-mike-postles-high-win-rate-as-he-denies-allegations\/","title":{"rendered":"Poker Experts Suspicious Over Mike Postle\u2019s High Win Rate as He Denies Allegations"},"content":{"rendered":"

Former pro poker players are echoing concern from colleagues over possible cheating by Mike Postle, who has often played live-streamed games at California\u2019s Stones Gambling Hall, but is now under scrutiny.<\/p>\n

\"Mike
Pro Poker Player Mike Postle is under scrutiny after cheating charges were raised against him. He denies the allegations. (Image: YouTube)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Now engaged in such fields as law and academia, the former players point to such \u201ccircumstantial evidence\u201d as Postle\u2019s high win rate and the specific hands he played. They additionally question the possible misuse of RFID (radio-frequency identification) cards.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe session win rate evidence strongly suggests cheating was involved, but is not proof,\u201d Dominic K. Albino, now an economics instructor at the University of Connecticut, said in an email to Casino.org<\/em>. \u201cCombined with other evidence, such as the very curious play of particular hands some poker pros have described, the situation is extremely concerning.<\/p>\n

I spent three years playing poker professionally, online and live, and I certainly wouldn’t sit at the live stream table with Postle in the game,\u201d Albino added.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Following an outpouring of online and social media allegations, Postle has denied wrongdoing. He was quoted that \u201cit is absolutely impossible for me to be doing what they\u2019re claiming. It is 1000% impossible,\u201d CNBC reported.<\/p>\n

Win Rate Unlikely<\/h2>\n

But Duncan Palamourdas, a math professor and UCLA extension instructor with specialization in poker education and author of the forthcoming book, Why Alex beats Bobbie?<\/em>“, told Casino.org<\/em> that, according to reports from analyst Doug Polk, Postle \u201cnever lost a game in something like 11 sessions, booking around $60k. From a purely\u00a0<\/strong>mathematical standpoint, this is already unlikely.\u201d<\/p>\n

Palamourdas explained that \u201ca very winning poker player has, at best, a 70 percent chance of booking a win in these kind of games. Even then, a player of that caliber would only have less than a 2 percent chance of booking 11 wins in a row. Much less, if we take into account that all [of] Postle’s wins were pretty significant for the stakes he was playing.\u201d<\/p>\n

The allegations have charged Postle somehow\u00a0knew \u201cthe hole-cards of his opponents,\u201d Palamourdas said. \u201cApparently, there has been no formal proof, but only\u00a0substantial\u00a0circumstantial\u00a0evidence.\u201d<\/p>\n

Palamourdas noted, too, how analyst Joey Ingram claimed Postle \u201cpretty much played each river nearly perfectly, and only lost when he failed to bluff a weak hand out of the pot.\u201d<\/p>\n

\u201cThere are way more rivers than there are sessions, so even a player who can play, say, 90 percent of those rivers correctly — already a huge stretch, but let’s pretend it is the case, for the sake of the argument — has less than a 0.003 percent chance of playing perfectly over 100 different rivers. That’s 33,333 to 1 against,\u201d Palamourdas said.<\/p>\n

\u201cLet’s also not forget that this calculation assumes a player who can make the right river decision 9\/10 times,\u201d he added. \u201cIf Mike’s skill is more pragmatic, these odds drop substantially.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

Palamourdas also pointed out that Ingram and Polk noticed Postle “being unusually distracted by his phone every time he was in a hand. Nobody knows what he was looking at, but given everything else, I understand why many view this as highly suspicious.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Overall, Palamourdas said, \u201cThese are very serious allegations, because they show that an assumed safe environment for live poker may be otherwise compromised.\u201d He proposed that Stones \u201cban any electronic device of any kind, especially during a hand.<\/p>\n

\u201cPeople like Doug and Joey have also suggested various other approaches, including publicly disclosing the whole footage of Mike’s camera for the whole session. If there’s no foul play, nobody has anything to worry about,\u201d\u00a0Palamourdas added.<\/p>\n

Also, IJay Palansky, now an attorney at Armstrong Teasdale and who was one of two players who played the artificial intelligence poker computer at the World Series of Poker in 2008, said that allegations of cheating involving Postle, \u201cseems to be the consensus in the poker community.\u201d<\/p>\n

If the claims are true, Palansky told Casino.org,<\/em> that \u201cWhen the facts shake out \u2026 it\u2019ll be interesting to see who helped Postle\u2026 Some speculate it was a floorman.\u201d<\/p>\n

Another question is \u201cwhether the casino could have acted more responsibly to help prevent it,\u201d Palansky added.<\/p>\n

Stones Halts Streaming<\/h2>\n

Given the allegations, Stones, located in Citrus Heights, has temporarily halted all streams and stopped the use of RFID cards. \u00a0An independent inquiry was also launched, led by former federal prosecutor Michael Lipman.<\/p>\n

Stones said in a tweet last week \u201cWe have been alarmed by allegations of unfair play occurring during the streamed broadcasts of our \u2018Stones Live\u2019 games, and have acted quickly to investigate.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n

When asked for comment, the California<\/a> Attorney General\u2019s office — which oversees the California Bureau of Gambling Control (CBGC)<\/a> — told Casino.org<\/em> \u201cTo protect its integrity, we are unable to comment on, even to confirm or deny, a potential or ongoing investigation.\u201d<\/p>\n

And in case you\u2019re wondering, IJay <\/em>Palansky <\/em>confirmed to Casino.org that he is a first cousin to long-time World Series of Poker VP of Corporate Communications Seth Palansky.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Former pro poker players are echoing concern from colleagues over possible cheating by Mike Postle, who has often played live-streamed games at California\u2019s Stones Gambling Hall, but is now under scrutiny. Now engaged in such fields as law and academia, the former players point to such \u201ccircumstantial evidence\u201d as Postle\u2019s high win rate and the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":44,"featured_media":116685,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,14],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPoker Experts Suspicious Over Mike Postle\u2019s High Win Rate<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Former pro poker players are echoing the concern from colleagues over possible cheating by Mike Postle. 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He denies wrongdoing.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/poker-experts-suspicious-over-mike-postles-high-win-rate-as-he-denies-allegations\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Casino.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Casino.OrgNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2019-10-07T06:52:50+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2019-10-08T19:40:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/postle.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Ed Silverstein\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@casinoorgedsilv\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Ed Silverstein\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/poker-experts-suspicious-over-mike-postles-high-win-rate-as-he-denies-allegations\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/poker-experts-suspicious-over-mike-postles-high-win-rate-as-he-denies-allegations\/\",\"name\":\"Poker Experts Suspicious Over Mike Postle\u2019s High Win Rate\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/poker-experts-suspicious-over-mike-postles-high-win-rate-as-he-denies-allegations\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/poker-experts-suspicious-over-mike-postles-high-win-rate-as-he-denies-allegations\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/10\/postle.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2019-10-07T06:52:50+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2019-10-08T19:40:43+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/b3771b02527bcbda9af984b9b1ff098e\"},\"description\":\"Former pro poker players are echoing the concern from colleagues over possible cheating by Mike Postle. 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