{"id":151033,"date":"2020-10-04T00:41:40","date_gmt":"2020-10-04T07:41:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/?p=151033"},"modified":"2020-10-04T13:24:30","modified_gmt":"2020-10-04T20:24:30","slug":"as-trump-remains-hospitalized-with-covid-predictit-traders-move-on-biden-presidential-victory-barrett-confirmation-date","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/as-trump-remains-hospitalized-with-covid-predictit-traders-move-on-biden-presidential-victory-barrett-confirmation-date\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Remains Hospitalized, PredictIt Traders Move on Biden Victory, Barrett Confirmation"},"content":{"rendered":"

A surreal Saturday \u2013 the first full day President Trump spent at Walter Reed Medical Center dealing with COVID-19 \u2013 saw additional people from the President\u2019s inner circle announce they had tested positive for the coronavirus.<\/p>\n

\"Trump
President Trump shown working at a table Saturday evening from his observation room at Walter Reed Medical Center, where he has been since Friday after he tested positive for COVID-19. (Image: The White House)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

There had been mixed reports about the president\u2019s condition, according to various media outlets. However on Saturday night, Navy Cmdr. Dr. Sean Conley, Trump\u2019s physician, released a report stating POTUS was fever-free and \u201coff supplemental oxygen.\u201d The staff at the military medical facility just outside DC plan to continue observing his condition and treating him.<\/p>\n

He spent most of the afternoon conducting business, and has been up and moving about the medical suite without difficulty,\u201d Conley said in a statement. \u201cWhile not yet out of the woods, the team remains cautiously optimistic.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Saturday, with Trump in the hospital with COVID-19, provided a stark contrast to where the administration was just a week ago, when it announced the President\u2019s nomination of Amy Coney Barrett<\/a> to the US Supreme Court. In the week since, the President, First Lady Melania Trump, two sitting US Senators, several aides, and even Notre Dame President Rev. John Jenkins have since been identified as contracting the coronavirus.<\/p>\n

Not only has Trump\u2019s diagnosis affected his re-election campaign, where he trails former Vice President Joe Biden with a month remaining before Election Day, it now may imperil when the Senate takes up the confirmation process for Barrett.<\/p>\n

PredictIt Traders Jumping on Electoral Blowout<\/h2>\n

The price for Trump shares on PredictIt Saturday actually went up 3 cents to 40 cents, although trading down significantly. On Friday, an astonishing 1.4 million shares were traded, as the President\u2019s shares reached a watermark low Friday. The highest volumes of trading occurring when Trump first announced his COVID diagnosis early Friday morning and when he was seen walking to Marine One, which airlifted him to Walter Reed on Friday afternoon.<\/p>\n

On Saturday, more than 400,000 shares were traded. But that still ranked as the fifth-highest volume day over the past three months.<\/p>\n

Biden\u2019s shares, meanwhile, dropped from Friday\u2019s high of 66 cents to 63 cents. However, Saturday\u2019s price was still higher than any other day for Biden\u2019s stock in the last three months.<\/p>\n

Traders have also been active in PredictIt\u2019s other presidential markets, namely the margin of victory. Since Tuesday\u2019s presidential debate<\/a>, there\u2019s been sharp action on both the Electoral College and popular vote totals.<\/p>\n

On Monday, the Democrats winning the popular vote by more than 10.5 percent traded at 14 cents. By Friday, they were trading at 21 and held steady on Saturday. Dems by 7.5-to-9 percent have been steady at 16 cents since Tuesday.<\/p>\n

On the Electoral College market, the price for shares of a Democratic landslide have risen sharply. Shares for a 280-plus margin (out of a total of 538 votes) were trading at 8 cents last Sunday before steadily climbing to 15 cents by Thursday, where they\u2019ve held firm since.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a fair amount of energy in longshot markets,\u201d PredictIt trader and StarSpangledGamblers<\/a><\/em> blogger Keendawg told Casino.org<\/em>. \u201cIf you bet on an unimaginably large Biden blowout, then you\u2019re in the money right now.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Even a 150-to-209 vote margin for Biden went from 14 cents to 18 cents from Wednesday to Friday, and held firm there Saturday. That price, the highest per share of any of the possibilities, would represent a more than 4-to-1 return if it cashes out.<\/p>\n

Based on PredictIt’s trading markets for individual states, Biden, the Democratic nominee, holds a 335-203 edge over Trump, the Republican incumbent. However, three states – Georgia, Iowa, and Ohio – could be considered toss-ups leaning toward Trump. Biden, whose favored by traders in the toss-up states of Florida and North Carolina, could gain up to another 40 votes – possibly a 375-163 margin – if he can flip the other three toss-ups.<\/p>\n

Barrett Confirmation Takes Hit, But Big Picture Remains Clear<\/h2>\n

On the Supreme Court side, traders still believe Barret will get nominated. But there\u2019s less certainty now about when that might happen.<\/p>\n

Trading on shares that the federal appeals judge will receive 51 votes, a simple majority in the Senate and enough to confirm her, are trading at 49 cents, up from 42 cents on Monday. That current price essentially equates to even-money odds.<\/p>\n

\n

However, shares that she\u2019ll be confirmed before Election Day dropped by more than 30 cents, from 87 cents last Sunday to 56 cents on Friday. They did bounce back to 61 cents Saturday.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Keendawg notes that while traders who got in early on a quick confirmation for Barrett have taken a hit, the conventional wisdom still remains the same.<\/p>\n

\u201cBig picture, this probably hasn\u2019t changed much, and the market reflects that,\u201d <\/strong>he said. \u201cBettors still think Trump will lose, that Barrett will eventually be confirmed, and that both houses of Congress will be controlled by Democrats.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

A surreal Saturday \u2013 the first full day President Trump spent at Walter Reed Medical Center dealing with COVID-19 \u2013 saw additional people from the President\u2019s inner circle announce they had tested positive for the coronavirus. There had been mixed reports about the president\u2019s condition, according to various media outlets. However on Saturday night, Navy […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":45,"featured_media":151035,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20,61],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPredictIt Election, SCOTUS Markets Move as Trump Deals with COVID<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"PredictIt traders have become bullish on a big Biden win over Trump, recently diagnosed with COVID-19, in the Presidential election.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"PredictIt Election, SCOTUS Markets Move as Trump Deals with COVID\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"PredictIt traders have become bullish on a big Biden win over Trump, recently diagnosed with COVID-19, in the Presidential election.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/as-trump-remains-hospitalized-with-covid-predictit-traders-move-on-biden-presidential-victory-barrett-confirmation-date\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Casino.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Casino.OrgNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-10-04T07:41:40+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-10-04T20:24:30+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/EjdCe5YWAAAYN5a.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1201\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"789\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Bittenbender\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Bittenbender\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/as-trump-remains-hospitalized-with-covid-predictit-traders-move-on-biden-presidential-victory-barrett-confirmation-date\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/as-trump-remains-hospitalized-with-covid-predictit-traders-move-on-biden-presidential-victory-barrett-confirmation-date\/\",\"name\":\"PredictIt Election, SCOTUS Markets Move as Trump Deals with COVID\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/as-trump-remains-hospitalized-with-covid-predictit-traders-move-on-biden-presidential-victory-barrett-confirmation-date\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/as-trump-remains-hospitalized-with-covid-predictit-traders-move-on-biden-presidential-victory-barrett-confirmation-date\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/EjdCe5YWAAAYN5a.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-10-04T07:41:40+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-10-04T20:24:30+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/eb30e765d812fc9b38b333f8d13068b2\"},\"description\":\"PredictIt traders have become bullish on a big Biden win over Trump, recently diagnosed with COVID-19, in the Presidential election.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/as-trump-remains-hospitalized-with-covid-predictit-traders-move-on-biden-presidential-victory-barrett-confirmation-date\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/as-trump-remains-hospitalized-with-covid-predictit-traders-move-on-biden-presidential-victory-barrett-confirmation-date\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/as-trump-remains-hospitalized-with-covid-predictit-traders-move-on-biden-presidential-victory-barrett-confirmation-date\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/EjdCe5YWAAAYN5a.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/10\/EjdCe5YWAAAYN5a.jpg\",\"width\":1201,\"height\":789,\"caption\":\"President Trump shown working at a table Saturday evening from his observation room at Walter Reed Medical Center, where he has been since Friday after he tested positive for COVID-19. 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