{"id":157959,"date":"2020-12-09T22:07:19","date_gmt":"2020-12-10T06:07:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/?p=157959"},"modified":"2020-12-10T11:52:24","modified_gmt":"2020-12-10T19:52:24","slug":"trump-tweets-bookies-called-him-as-huge-favorite-to-win-re-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/trump-tweets-bookies-called-him-as-huge-favorite-to-win-re-election\/","title":{"rendered":"Trump Tweets &#8216;Bookies&#8217; Posted Him as Huge Favorite to Reclaim White House on Election Night"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>President Trump once again took to Twitter Wednesday afternoon to complain about the election results. This time he claimed the odds were with him in a big way on Election Night. He stated \u201cbookies\u201d gave him a 97 percent chance of winning late on Nov. 3.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_157960\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-157960\" data-style=\"width: 1200px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-157960\" src=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/P20200311JB-14412-1-1024x683-1.jpg\" alt=\"President Trump\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/P20200311JB-14412-1-1024x683-1.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/P20200311JB-14412-1-1024x683-1-142x95.jpg 142w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/P20200311JB-14412-1-1024x683-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/P20200311JB-14412-1-1024x683-1-600x400.jpg 600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><figcaption  id=\"caption-attachment-157960\"class=\"text-description\">President Trump&#8217;s days in the White House may be numbered, but he&#8217;s still waging a fight to stay in office. On Wednesday, he claimed &#8220;bookies&#8221; had him at a 97 percent chance to win on Election Night. As it appears, the odds weren&#8217;t in his favor. (Image: The White House)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>On Nov. 3, initial returns from same-day voting were in Trump\u2019s favor in key battleground states, such as Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, as those states &#8212; as required by law &#8212; started tallying absentee ballots in the ensuing days, the results showed former Vice President Joe Biden taking the lead.<\/p>\n<p>Biden would eventually be declared the winner in those states, helping him secure a majority of Electoral College votes. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/president-donald-trump-hints-2024-odds-favor-another-reelection-try\/\">Trump<\/a> and several of his supporters, though, continue to try cases in court to get the results in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and other states overturned.<\/p>\n<p>While lawyers have filed cases in federal court, including a case filed to the US Supreme Court by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, Trump keeps trying to sway to the court of public opinion through his Twitter account.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">At 10:00 P.M. on Election Evening, we were at 97% win with the so-called \u201cbookies\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/realDonaldTrump\/status\/1336733602902659075?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">December 9, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2>Trump Tweet Unclear<\/h2>\n<p>It\u2019s not exactly sure who he means by \u201cso-called \u2018bookies.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n<p>With the exception of such trading markets as PredictIt and Polymarket, betting on politics in the US is illegal. However, it\u2019s a thriving market for European sportsbooks and the unregulated offshore books that still cater illegally to American bettors.<\/p>\n<p>None of those had Trump as that big of a favorite, though, even when the odds flipped in his favor late that night and into the following morning.<\/p>\n<div class=\"callout\">\n<p>At 8:20 pm ET on Nov. 3, Trump had an implied probability of 74.1 percent at British-based Betfair. About an hour later, fellow British-book Smarkets listed Trump with odds that implied a 63.7 percent chance of winning. In the US overnight hours, neither Ladbrokes nor 888Sport, two more British books, had odds on Trump that implied even a 75 percent chance of winning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p>A short time later on Wednesday morning, the odds in the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/trump-now-favorite-in-dramatic-shift-to-beat-biden-win-re-election\/\">presidential race<\/a> began to swing back in Biden&#8217;s favor.<\/p>\n<p>PredictIt had Trump shares trading at 72 cents early on Nov. 4 before they shifted as well. Winners receive $1 per share regardless of when they buy into the market.<\/p>\n<h2>Implied Probability More About Value<\/h2>\n<p>Of course, just because odds translate to an implied probability, that doesn\u2019t mean it\u2019ll happen. Implied probability is a metric bettors can use to help them determine if a bet has a value at those odds.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s possible Trump was referring to win probability, which evaluates a team\u2019s &#8212; or in this case, a candidate\u2019s &#8212; chances of winning based at a particular point in a game. That metric uses the historical performances of teams in the same situation to determine the probability.<\/p>\n<p>Again, that metric does not guarantee success. A 97 percent chance of winning still means there\u2019s a 3 percent chance of not winning, oftentimes known as losing.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, there is precedent for this, as recently as this year. The Atlanta Falcons twice this season had win probabilities greater than 99 percent, including a 99.9 percent chance against the Dallas Cowboys. Sure enough, the Falcons lost both games.<\/p>\n<h2>Presidential Results Certified, Electoral College Next<\/h2>\n<p>A couple of hours after Trump\u2019s tweet, West Virginia became the final state to certify its election results. That\u2019s the final step before the Electoral College meets Monday in state capitals across the country to cast their votes. Those votes will then be counted when the new Congress convenes in January.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s expected that Biden will receive 306 of the 538 available Electoral College votes. That would confirm his election as the country\u2019s next president.<\/p>\n<p><strong>PredictIt has yet to cash out the presidential election. But the number of traders for both Biden and Trump have reached their limit, so no newcomers can buy shares. Still, as of midnight ET Thursday, Biden\u2019s shares were trading at 88 cents while Trump\u2019s were available at 14 cents.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>President Trump once again took to Twitter Wednesday afternoon to complain about the election results. This time he claimed the odds were with him in a big way on Election Night. He stated \u201cbookies\u201d gave him a 97 percent chance of winning late on Nov. 3. On Nov. 3, initial returns from same-day voting were [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":45,"featured_media":157960,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[19853,61],"tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v23.1 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Trump Tweets Bookies Called Him as Huge Favorite to Win Re-Election<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"President Trump tweeted Wednesday that \u201cbookies\u201d gave him a 97 percent chance to beat Joe Biden and win re-election late on Nov. 3.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/trump-tweets-bookies-called-him-as-huge-favorite-to-win-re-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Trump Tweets Bookies Called Him as Huge Favorite to Win Re-Election\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"President Trump tweeted Wednesday that \u201cbookies\u201d gave him a 97 percent chance to beat Joe Biden and win re-election late on Nov. 3.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/trump-tweets-bookies-called-him-as-huge-favorite-to-win-re-election\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Casino.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Casino.OrgNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2020-12-10T06:07:19+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2020-12-10T19:52:24+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/P20200311JB-14412-1-1024x683-1.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"683\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Steve Bittenbender\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Steve Bittenbender\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/trump-tweets-bookies-called-him-as-huge-favorite-to-win-re-election\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/trump-tweets-bookies-called-him-as-huge-favorite-to-win-re-election\/\",\"name\":\"Trump Tweets Bookies Called Him as Huge Favorite to Win Re-Election\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/trump-tweets-bookies-called-him-as-huge-favorite-to-win-re-election\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/trump-tweets-bookies-called-him-as-huge-favorite-to-win-re-election\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/P20200311JB-14412-1-1024x683-1.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2020-12-10T06:07:19+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2020-12-10T19:52:24+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/eb30e765d812fc9b38b333f8d13068b2\"},\"description\":\"President Trump tweeted Wednesday that \u201cbookies\u201d gave him a 97 percent chance to beat Joe Biden and win re-election late on Nov. 3.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/trump-tweets-bookies-called-him-as-huge-favorite-to-win-re-election\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/trump-tweets-bookies-called-him-as-huge-favorite-to-win-re-election\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/trump-tweets-bookies-called-him-as-huge-favorite-to-win-re-election\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/P20200311JB-14412-1-1024x683-1.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/P20200311JB-14412-1-1024x683-1.jpg\",\"width\":1024,\"height\":683,\"caption\":\"President Trump's days in the White House may be numbered, but he's still waging a fight to stay in office. 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On Wednesday, he claimed \"Bookies\" had him at a 97 percent chance to win on Election Night. As it appears, the odds weren't in his favor. 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