The lawsuit, filed in the US District Court for the Western District of Texas, called on the court to \u201center a preliminary and then permanent injunction\u201d that would allow futures markets that were set to end after Feb. 2023 \u2013 including 2024 presidential election markets \u2013 to continue.<\/p>\n
While the complaint also wants the court to vacate the CFTC\u2019s letter, it\u2019s uncertain if PredictIt will also seek a preliminary injunction against the entire letter.<\/p>\n
\nA motion for a preliminary injunction is a separate filing (from the initial complaint), and they plan to do that within days,\u201d<\/strong> PredictIt Public Relations Director Lindsey Singer told Casino.org<\/em> on Wednesday. \u201cBut I can\u2019t preview the specific scope of the injunctive relief. It will be in the motion when they file.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\nIf PredictIt sought an injunction against the letter, and if a judge approved it, that would seemingly allow the operator to offer new markets ahead of the 2022 general election. PredictIt hasn’t unveiled any new markets since the CFTC\u2019s August 4 decision.<\/p>\n
The CFTC declined to comment on the lawsuit.<\/p>\n
Researchers, Investors Join Lawsuit<\/h2>\n
PredictIt, established eight years ago by the Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand, filed the lawsuit with Aristotle International. That’s a Washington, DC-based information technology firm for political campaigns that provides clearing house and other services for PredictIt. The university itself is not a part of the lawsuit.<\/p>\n
When Victoria University sought to create the exchange, it told the CFTC it would do so for research purposes. Two professors, Rutgers University Statistics Professor Harry Crane and Michigan State University, Associate Professor of Political Science Corwin Smidt, also are plaintiffs in the case.<\/p>\n
According to the lawsuit, Crane analyzed PredictIt data from 2018 to 2020, which \u201csuggests that the Market\u2019s percentage-trading price is a more accurate predictor than the predictions made on the opinion-poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight<\/i>.\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\nForcing PredictIt\u2019s shutdown would hinder the work of Crane, Smidt, and other researchers said the plaintiffs\u2019 lawyers in the initial filing.<\/p>\n
\u201cIf contracts predicting the outcome of the 2024 presidential election were liquidated before their close-out event \u2026 the trading data from those contracts would be worthless from an academic perspective, foreclosing future use of the Market as a research resource,\u201d the complaint states.<\/p>\n
Two active traders on PredictIt markets, Kevin Clarke and Trevor Boeckmann are also plaintiffs who hold contracts on the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. The lawsuit claims the CFTC\u2019s actions have \u201cdistorted the value\u201d of their holdings. Both have invested thousands of dollars into the exchange.<\/p>\n
Political Betting in the US<\/h2>\n
Since its creation, PredictIt has been the closest opportunity for Americans to wager on political elections. When the CFTC said it wouldn’t take action against PredictIt, it also gave several stipulations. Those include limits on how much people could invest in each market and the number of traders for each opportunity.<\/p>\n
Last month\u2019s letter didn’t indicate which specific criteria PredictIt violated to cause the revocation, and Singer defended the exchange’s operations<\/a> in an interview with Casino.org<\/em> last month.<\/p>\nWhile the CFTC has revoked PredictIt\u2019s status, it\u2019s also considering a request by commercial online exchange Kalshi<\/a> to offer markets on the outcome of the 2022 and future US House and US Senate election cycle.<\/strong><\/p>\nA 30-day public comment period is expected to run through September 25, and the CFTC said late last month that it will strive to give a determination by Oct. 28.<\/p>\n
This article has been updated to correct the spelling of Kevin Clarke’s name.\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"PredictIt plans to file a motion in US federal court that would seek to stop a regulator\u2019s decision to require the politically focused futures trade exchange to liquidate all of its markets by Feb. 15, 2023. That move comes on the heels of the exchange and others filing a lawsuit late last week against the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":45,"featured_media":232026,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[60,61],"tags":[82218,82529,82192,82190],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
PredictIt to Seek Injunction Against Ending Political Exchange in Feb. 2023<\/title>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n