{"id":265646,"date":"2023-03-22T15:59:10","date_gmt":"2023-03-22T20:59:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/?p=265646"},"modified":"2023-03-23T14:51:48","modified_gmt":"2023-03-23T19:51:48","slug":"ncaa-tournament-hold-skewed-lower-by-early-upsets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/ncaa-tournament-hold-skewed-lower-by-early-upsets\/","title":{"rendered":"‘March Madness’ on Pace for $4.5B Handle, Says Macquarie Analyst"},"content":{"rendered":"

The NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament, known as March Madness, resumes Thursday with half of the Sweet 16 games. Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon estimates the event will generate $4.5 billion in legal handle for North American sportsbook operators.<\/p>\n

\"NCAA
Texas players celebrate a made shot in a recent NCAA tournament game. An analyst says the event should generate $4.5 billion in handle for sportsbooks. (Image: SBNation<\/em>)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In a note to clients on Wednesday, Beynon said the tournament’s first two rounds likely drove 70% of overall sports wagering handle last week. Those legs of March Madness are usually the biggest handle contributors during the event, owing to the massive amount of games available to bettors.<\/p>\n

We estimate the Sweet 16 (8 games) and Elite 8 (4 games) rounds combined represent ~55% of weekly sports betting handle (Mar 23-25) while the Final Four (2 games; April 1) and Championship (1 game; April 3) represent 40-50% of handle,\u201d<\/strong> wrote the analyst.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

With those statistics in mind, the tournament likely drives 30% of North American sports betting handle in March, and 10% of next month\u2019s total.<\/p>\n

Upsets Alter Hold Outlook<\/h2>\n

Large handles are one thing. But analysts typically focus on sportsbook operators\u2019 hold data — the percentage of cash retained for each dollar bet.<\/p>\n

\n

Macquarie estimates operators\u2019 hold through the first two rounds of the tournament was approximately 7%. But that figure could have been significantly larger if not for Fairleigh Dickinson University<\/a> vanquishing Purdue last Friday, marking just the second time a 16-seed beat a 1-seed. Princeton beating the University of Arizona in a 15\/2 matchup and then topping the Missouri Tigers in the second round may have also adversely affected sportsbooks\u2019 hold percentage.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Beynon notes the average hold on Friday, March 17, was 8%. But it should have been closer to 4% if not for the Purdue loss. However, bettors\u2019 proclivity for betting overs<\/a> was a boon to operators over the tournament’s first two rounds.<\/p>\n

\u201cOf note, Over\/Under bets were a big positive for sportsbooks, with 67% of the games going under,\u201d observed Beynon. \u201cAssuming average hold for the remainder of the month, we estimate 1Q23 market hold is trending close to 8%, but we expect most operators to achieve hold 100-200bps below the market hold.\u201d<\/p>\n

Macquarie Stock Idea, New York Hold Analysis<\/h2>\n

Looking at February hold data from New York, Beynon noted that FanDuel and Resorts World led the way at 9.1% and 9%, respectively. DraftKings (NASDAQ: DKNG) and BetMGM, the second and third-largest domestic online sportsbook operators behind FanDuel, checked in at 6.8% and 7%, respectively.<\/p>\n

Bally\u2019s (NYSE: BALY) BallyBet posted a February hold of just 1.5% in New York. By that metric, the next-worst operator was Caesars Sportsbook. But that company notched nearly triple the February hold in that state, as Bally\u2019s did.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Beynon has outperformed ratings on six gaming stocks with sports wagering exposure, including DraftKings<\/a> and Caesars Entertainment (NASDAQ: CZR). Based on most potential upside relative to his price target, Beynon\u2019s top pick is Rush Street Interactive (NYSE: RSI), which needs to more than double to reach the analyst\u2019s price objective of $7.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The NCAA Men\u2019s Basketball Tournament, known as March Madness, resumes Thursday with half of the Sweet 16 games. Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon estimates the event will generate $4.5 billion in legal handle for North American sportsbook operators. In a note to clients on Wednesday, Beynon said the tournament’s first two rounds likely drove 70% of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":46,"featured_media":265647,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[82967,10,1074],"tags":[85454,81903,80968],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nNCAA Tournament Hold Skewed Lower By Early Upsets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Sportsbooks' NCAA Tournament hold adversely affected by early upsets.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/ncaa-tournament-hold-skewed-lower-by-early-upsets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"NCAA Tournament Hold Skewed Lower By Early Upsets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sportsbooks' NCAA Tournament hold adversely affected by early upsets.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/ncaa-tournament-hold-skewed-lower-by-early-upsets\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Casino.org\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/Casino.OrgNews\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-03-22T20:59:10+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2023-03-23T19:51:48+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/texas.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Todd Shriber\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@etfgodfather\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@Casino_Org\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Todd Shriber\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/ncaa-tournament-hold-skewed-lower-by-early-upsets\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/ncaa-tournament-hold-skewed-lower-by-early-upsets\/\",\"name\":\"NCAA Tournament Hold Skewed Lower By Early Upsets\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#website\"},\"primaryImageOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/ncaa-tournament-hold-skewed-lower-by-early-upsets\/#primaryimage\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/ncaa-tournament-hold-skewed-lower-by-early-upsets\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/texas.jpg\",\"datePublished\":\"2023-03-22T20:59:10+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2023-03-23T19:51:48+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/#\/schema\/person\/f4cecf70a5032bc4e60eb73fc86d4a85\"},\"description\":\"Sportsbooks' NCAA Tournament hold adversely affected by early upsets.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/ncaa-tournament-hold-skewed-lower-by-early-upsets\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/ncaa-tournament-hold-skewed-lower-by-early-upsets\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/ncaa-tournament-hold-skewed-lower-by-early-upsets\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/texas.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.casino.org\/news\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/texas.jpg\",\"width\":1200,\"height\":800,\"caption\":\"Texas players celebrate a shot in a recent NCAA Tournament game. 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